NCAA Hockey Bracketology: Week 1

Is it way too early to be paying attention to bracketology? Probably. With that said, I think it's interesting to track the progress throughout the season. So, (hopefully) I'll be able to post a quick update every week until the NCAA tournament with my projections.

Wisconsin currently checks in with a three-way tie for dead last in the current PairWise. I guess you can only go up from here?

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Minnesota State
2. Minnesota Duluth
3. Nebraska Omaha
4. Miami
5. Michigan Tech
6. Harvard
7. Minnesota
8. Bowling Green
9. North Dakota
10. Vermont
11. Yale
12. Boston University
13. Denver
14. Merrimack
15. St. Lawrence
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16. UMass-Lowell
-- Robert Morris (Atlantic Hockey winner)

Bubble teams (in order): Quinnipiac, Providence, Colgate, Dartmouth, Penn State.

In our first installment, Atlantic Hockey doesn't have a team in the top 16 of the PairWise. That means the 16th team is taken out, and the Atlantic Hockey winner is put into the tournament.

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Minnesota State, Minnesota Duluth, Nebraska Omaha, Miami
No. 2 seeds: Michigan Tech, Harvard, Minnesota, Bowling Green
No. 3 seeds: North Dakota, Vermont, Yale, Boston University
No. 4 seeds: Denver, Merrimack, St. Lawrence, Robert Morris

Step 3: Place host schools in regionals

The only host school in the tournament at this point is North Dakota. UND is hosting the West Regional in Fargo.

Step 4: Place No. 1 seeds in regionals

Top seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 overall seed Minnesota State is the top seed in the West.
No. 2 overall seed Minnesota Duluth is the top seed in the Midwest
No. 3 overall seed Nebraska Omaha is the top seed in the East.
No. 4 overall seed Miami is the top seed in the Northeast.

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference matchups, if possible.

Begin by filling each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

No. 2 seeds:

No. 5 Michigan Tech is placed in No. 4 Miami's region, the Northeast.
No. 6 Harvard is placed in No. 3 Nebraska Omaha's region, the East.
No. 7 Minnesota is placed in No. 2 Minnesota Duluth's region, the Midwest.
No. 8 Bowling Green is placed in No. 1 Minnesota State's region, the West.

No. 3 seeds:

No. 9 North Dakota is a host, and has already been placed in the West.
No. 10 Vermont is placed in No. 7 Minnesota's region, the Midwest
No. 11 Yale is placed in No. 6 Harvard's region, the East.
No. 12 BU is placed in No. 5 Michigan Tech's region, the Northeast.

No. 4 seeds:

No. 13 Denver is placed in No. 4 Miami's region, the Northeast.
No. 14 Merrimack is placed in No. 3 UNO's region, the East.
No. 15 St. Lawrence is placed in No. 2 UMD's region, the Midwest.
No. 16 Robert Morris is placed in No. 1 Minnesota State's region, the West.

Our bracket as we have it set up:

West (Fargo, North Dakota)

No. 1 Minnesota State vs. No. 16 Robert Morris
No. 8 Bowling Green vs. No. 9 North Dakota

Midwest (South Bend, Indiana)

No. 2 Minnesota Duluth vs. No. 15 St. Lawrence
No. 7 Minnesota vs. No. 10 Vermont

East (Providence, Rhode Island)

No. 3 Nebraska Omaha vs. No. 14 Merrimack
No. 6 Harvard vs. No. 11 Yale

Northeast (Manchester, New Hampshire)

No. 4 Miami vs. No. 13 Denver
No. 5 Michigan Tech vs. No. 12 Boston University

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference matchups in the first round.

This week we have two. Harvard vs. Yale (ECAC), and Miami vs. Denver (NCHC).

Remember that we can only flip teams that are in corresponding bands (1-4, 5-8, 9-12, 13-16).

The easy first change would be to flip Merrimack and Denver. This would also help improve attendance in the Northeast, as Merrimack gets a much shorter drive to Manchester.

Unfortunately that creates another intra-conference matchup between UNO and Denver. It also means we can't flip Denver and St. Lawrence, because that sets up another NCHC matchup with UMD and Denver. The only move we can make is to flip Denver and Robert Morris. You hate to do that, because you want to protect the No. 1 overall seed.

I'm choosing to make the switch because I think the committee would chose to avoid the intra-conference matchup first and protect the No. 1 overall seed second.

The second change is to swap Boston University and Yale. Flipping Michigan Tech and Harvard was also a consideration, but I like to keep bracket integrity as close as possible with the top eight seeds in the tournament.

Our bracket as we have it set up now:

West (Fargo, North Dakota)

No. 1 Minnesota State vs. No. 13 Denver
No. 8 Bowling Green vs. No. 9 North Dakota

Midwest (South Bend, Indiana)

No. 2 Minnesota Duluth vs. No. 15 St. Lawrence
No. 7 Minnesota vs. No. 10 Vermont

East (Providence, Rhode Island)

No. 3 Nebraska Omaha vs. No. 14 Merrimack
No. 6 Harvard vs. No. 12 Boston University

Northeast (Manchester, New Hampshire)

No. 4 Miami vs. No. 16 Robert Morris
No. 5 Michigan Tech vs. No. 11 Yale

Is there anything that we can change right now to make the tournament better for attendance?

The easiest change is to move Merrimack to Manchester by flipping them with Robert Morris. So we'll do that.

The West is fine with North Dakota being a host. The Midwest should get a boost from Gopher fans. I'd like to put Miami in South Bend, but as a No. 1 seed they are locked into going to the East unless they can pass Minnesota Duluth.

Our final bracket:

West (Fargo, North Dakota)

No. 1 Minnesota State vs. No. 13 Denver
No. 8 Bowling Green vs. No. 9 North Dakota

Midwest (South Bend, Indiana)

No. 2 Minnesota Duluth vs. No. 15 St. Lawrence
No. 7 Minnesota vs. No. 10 Vermont

East (Providence, Rhode Island)

No. 3 Nebraska Omaha vs. No. 16 Robert Morris
No. 6 Harvard vs. No. 12 Boston University

Northeast (Manchester, New Hampshire)

No. 4 Miami vs. No. 14 Merrimack
No. 5 Michigan Tech vs. No. 11 Yale

That's our bracket for this week.

Week-by-week Wisconsin tournament tracker:

Week 1: Tied for No. 57 in the PairWise.

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