The Wisconsin Badgers are facing off against the Purdue Boilermakers on the road in Week 4, looking to start Big Ten play with a victory.
Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are coming off a 34-20 loss to the Syracuse Orange, pushing them to 1-2 ahead of Week 4.
What are all of the odds ahead of the game?
Last weekend, I had two predictions for the game: Chez Mellusi over 59.5 rushing yards and Will Pauling over 47.5 receiving yards.
Mellusi’s prop hit as the running back saw a higher share of volume, especially early, rushing for 61 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries.
However, Pauling saw a significant downtick in snaps, as Skyler Bell outpaced him in the slot, which led to a one-catch, 16-yard performance from the starter.
Heading into Week 4, I’m now 2-1 in my season predictions. Let’s hope to keep the streak coming in tonight’s matchup versus Purdue.
Prop 1: Tanner Mordecai over 232.5 passing yards
Taking the over on passing yards as the Badgers enter a physical Big Ten game is a tough bet, but I’m riding with Tanner Mordecai in Week 4.
Through three games, Mordecai has thrown for 189, 277, and 236 yards respectively, and has yet to truly break out with the Badgers.
While I don’t know if an explosion will occur against Purdue, the Boilermakers are prone to giving up plays in the secondary, as seen through their first three games, with Fresno State’s Michael Keene throwing for 366 yards and Virginia Tech eclipsing the 232-yard mark through the air as well.
I don’t expect Wisconsin to operate like Syracuse did with the excessive amount of quarterback runs, and instead, think that Mordecai will get opportunities to throw downfield, which hasn't seen much success yet.
Prop 2: Purdue RB Devin Mockabee over 49.5 rushing yards
I’m not as confident in Wisconsin’s run defense this season.
While Purdue’s offensive line hasn't been great this year, leading to Mockabee, a near 1,000-yard rusher in 2022, the back should find opportunities to clear the 49.5-yard mark on the ground.
Mockabee has rushed for 60, 95, and 31 yards in his three games, and I think he’ll get the requisite volume to get at least 50 yards on the ground, with Wisconsin being a little susceptible on the ground, especially over the middle.
As long as he doesn't put the ball on the ground to the volume he did last week, the opportunity will be there.
Prop 3: Wisconsin WR Will Pauling over 32.5 receiving yards
After a strong first two weeks in which he led the Badgers in receiving yards with 55 and 78 yards, respectively, Will Pauling saw a significant decline in his snaps during the Week 3 win, as Skyler Bell earned more opportunities, resulting in a five-catch, 47-yard game.
That won’t be the case in Week 4, as I expect Pauling to see a similar amount of opportunities in his first two games.
I missed on the Pauling prediction in Week 3, and Wisconsin does spread the ball around to its wideouts on offense, but the prop just seems too low not to take. Let’s see if I get proven wrong.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.