Phew! The only thing hotter than the heat here in Tennessee (a disgusting 96 degrees at the time of writing) is this betting column! Yes, that’s right, the column is 14-0 over the last two weeks stacking winner after winner and cash upon cash! However, a cold front is due in down South, and the same is likely coming for the betting column at some point. Look, I can’t good undefeated every single week, alright? Profit in betting is a marathon, not a sprint. That said, we’ve got a really solid base we’re working on so let’s go find some more winners!
(Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.)
Duke (+7.5) @ Kansas
The Kansas Jayhawks are 3-0. There are people calling for them to be ranked. Hell, Lance Leipold looks like he’s all but wrapped up Coach of the Year at this pace! However, just like in betting, water finds its level. Are we really ready for Kansas to be more than a touchdown favorite? I don’t know that we are and when the world is zigging toward backing Kansas it’s time to zag the other way.
My power ratings make this line 6 so getting a crucial 7 and a hook is too much for me to pass up. Additionally, I don’t see this as just a fade of Jayhawk hype. I think Duke might be a better football team than originally thought. Currently, the Blue Devils rank 3rd in defensive havoc which means they’re creating disruptive plays and forcing turnovers, albeit against Temple and Northwestern.
Additionally, the Blue Devils are 33rd in success rate against the run, which has been the best part of Kansas’s offense thus far. The Jayhawks run the ball 58% of the time and if Duke can slow that down and force more passing plays they should be able to slow this Kansas offense down and keep within that number of 7.5. I hate to do it, but this number is overinflated.
UCLA (-21) @ Colorado
Look, if I were you I would just bet against the Buffs every single week. I’ve bet against them two of the first three weeks and I am kicking myself for not doing so last week as well. This team is putrid. Kansas climbed out of the basement of the power five and Colorado went and took it’s place QUICKLY. They aren’t just bad at one thing, they are bad at everything. It’s gotten so bad that the AD had to release a statement that basically said “I know things are bad, but we don’t want to pay the buyout, so hold on.”
Statement from Athletic Director Rick George. pic.twitter.com/phAD5UkjXq— Colorado Buffaloes (@CUBuffs) September 19, 2022
Things are especially bad against the run for the Buffs. They rank dead last in rushing yards allowed, dead last in defensive success rate, and dead last in success rate against the run. Now, they have faced some good rushing offenses with all three of their opponents ranking in the top 25 in rushing success rate (Minnesota- 2nd, Air Force - 18th, TCU - 25th) but things don’t get any easier this week as UCLA ranks 15th in that same category.
On offense, things aren’t much better. The Buffs rank 127th in total offense and they are averaging just 11 points per game. They don’t have an offense that can keep up with anyone and the defense can’t stop a thing. There is a -21 still out at Draftkings and I’d lay anything up to -24. It’s scary hours in Boulder. The Buffs should be an autofade until Head Coach Karl Dorrell is fired and this team has to start proving themselves for their next Coach. Unless, of course, they hit the portal like 22 Buffs did this past off-season.
Indiana @ Cincinnati over 57
Last year the Indiana Hoosiers really struggled on the offensive side of the football. They ranked dead last in total offense, 113th in passing offense, 113th in rushing offense, and 123rd in scoring offense averaging just 17.2 points per game. Woof. Of course, that lead to change as Tom Allen brought in former UMASS Head Coach Walt Bell to install a new offense and work with transfer quarterback Connor Bazelak.
Thus far, the offense has looked much better and they are moving with a rapid pace. Currently, Indiana leads the nation in seconds per play averaging just 17.8 seconds between snaps. That’s faster than even Tennessee and Josh Heupel’s offense. Additionally, Indiana is throwing the football a ton, ranking 15th in passing plays per game. This is a recipe for points. On the other side, Cincinnati isn’t moving as fast, but they are also throwing the ball quite a bit as they rank in the top 25 in passing plays per game.
With both offenses taking to the air and Indiana moving at a fever pace I think this total is a little too low. I don’t think the market has caught up to what Indiana is doing on the offensive side of the football. Unfortunately, I didn’t get on this early enough as this total opened at 54 but I still like this up to 61 as I think points will be plenty here.
Iowa (-7.5) @ Rutgers: Look, laying 23 with Iowa last week was scary but did they cover? Yes. This week they are traveling to Rutgers who looks like they’ll be starting their third-string quarterback. I don’t see the Knights scoring and I think turnovers could be in play to where Iowa covers this in a similar fashion. Iowa wins 10-0 and all our eyes bleed.
Baylor (+3) @ Iowa State: My numbers make Baylor a 4-point favorite in this contest and so far they have not steered me wrong so I have to trust it here.
Hawaii (+4.5) @ New Mexico State: Wanna get gross? Alright, let’s get gross. These teams both suck. That said if you watched NMSU last week or anytime this season would you really think they’d ever be favored in a game? No? Exactly. This is absurd and I have to take it on principle. Maybe they prove me wrong, and if they do, fine.