Last week was a disappointing one for Wisconsin football as the Badgers fell to Washington State as 17.5-point favorites. If you followed the betting column you at least won there are the Cougars covered with relative ease. The total, however, did not go over as both teams battled to get to the red zone but had multiple penalties and turnovers to prevent the over from ever getting into reach. That puts this column with another 1-1 week and 2-2 overall.
This week, Wisconsin welcomes in the New Mexico State Aggies who are 0-3 on the season. New Mexico State is rated as one of the worst teams in college football and the spread follows that logic. Currently, the Badgers sit as 37-point favorites over the Aggies according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The total for this game currently sits at 46.5 points. Let’s dive into both numbers.
(Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.)
ATS Pick: Wisconsin (-37) I guess
Look. I am guessing you work pretty hard for your money. Yeah? Well, if that’s the case here’s my advice. Find something else to bet on or put it towards a different play on this game..... (hint hint). Anyway, there are 65+ games each week to bet on so there are plenty of opportunities to play something else rather than spending it here.
You probably watched that Wisconsin/Washington State game last week, and if you did you probably don’t feel super comfortable laying 37 points with this Wisconsin offense. I don’t blame you. I wouldn’t really either. However, for the sake of this column, and if I had to choose I would lay it with the Badgers because New Mexico State is that bad. However, I don't really love it, and I would not play it with my own money. My projections do make Wisconsin a 40-point favorite here, so it shows some value, but I still just want nothing to do with it.
Total Pick: Under 46.5
Like I said above, I would find a different game to play OR a different angle in this game, which brings me to the total. I think this under is a really solid play here. It currently sits at 46.5 points and I think that is just a tad bit too high.
Let’s take a look at the pace of these two teams. As you know, Wisconsin is a team that is notorious for dominating time of possession and taking time off the clock. So far this season that has remained true as the Badgers rank top five in time of possession after two weeks. That alone is always advantageous to the under.
On the other sideline, New Mexico State is a team that is moving at a SNAIL pace in 2022. In terms of plays per game, New Mexico State ranks 127th in the nation averaging just 53.3 plays. That is slow, but even slower when you consider New Mexico State has played one extra game this season compared to most teams. Last year, New Mexico State averaged 78 plays per game which means new Head Coach Jerry Kill is clearly emphasizing slowing the game down. That is even more apparent when you look at New Mexico State’s seconds per play which sits at 28.3 on average. That’s a slower pace than Army, a triple-option team.
If you go back to New Mexico State’s week two game you’ll see that the Aggies lost to Minnesota 38-0 in a game that flew by due to both teams' pace on offense. I see that same sort of game happening here with Wisconsin. The Badgers need to fix a run game that has struggled and will likely lean on that phase. Additionally, Wisconsin has Ohio State on deck so this looks like a game where you get your players in, get the game under control, and get out. The pace of both offenses shouldn’t allow this to get too out of hand so I think the under is the best play here. In fact, it’s one of my favorite plays in all of week three.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.