Tyler’s Take: My Favorite College Football Win Total Bets for 2022

College football season is right around the corner with Week 0 kicking off this Saturday. It’s an exciting time of year for many of us, and I can honestly say I am so thrilled to have football back in our lives. I am also thrilled to have betting on football back in our lives. Diving into the numbers and analyzing returning production, special teams ratings, and havoc metrics to find winners is one of my favorite hobbies.

Before we dive into week-by-week lines we’ve got to get our future bets on the board. We started the week with Heisman Odds and best bets, followed that with conference futures, and today I’ve got some win total bets for you to finish things off. The numbers I use in the below write-up are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook the official odds provider (and my personal favorite sportsbook) of B5Q!

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Under 3.5 (-120)

Three years ago Georgia Tech pulled the plug on the triple option and began the long process of switching their program over to a more modern offense (mistake IMO). To undertake that task the Yellow Jackets brought in Geoff Collins to overhaul the roster. He’s gone 9-25 in those three seasons and the team took a major step backward in 2021, winning just 3 games and cashing the under-five-win total from last year rather easily.

This year, I am going back to the well despite the even lower total heading into 2022. The Yellow Jackets program had a ton of coaching staff turnover and a plethora of players headed for the transfer portal. Their best player from a season ago, Jahmyr Gibbs, is now starting at running back for Alabama. Every decent player on the defensive side of the ball also departed. The Yellow Jackets return just two starters on offense, and two on defense. They did bring in 14 players of their own from the portal, but I am not sure I buy the current makeup of this team.

To add to that, the schedule is brutal once again. Georgia being a permanent rival in the non-conference doesn't help, and in their other three non-conference games Georgia Tech gets Ole Miss, a road trip to UCF, and they host FCS Western Carolina. In conference, they get a tough draw from the Atlantic as well in Clemson to open the season and a road trip to Florida State. They also get road trips to Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Pitt. Western Carolina is likely a win, but the only other game they might be favored in is when they host Duke. That gets you two, maybe, and I don’t see two others anywhere so give me the under 3.5 here.

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Arizona State Sun Devils Under 6 (-125)

You’ll notice a trend here, I like to bet on programs that appear to be dumpster fires. There isn’t much bigger of a dumpster fire than Arizona State. Yes, the Sun Devils did finish 8-5 last year but the back half of the season got awfully messy. ASU lost four of their last seven games. Shortly after that their offensive and defensive coordinators resigned, and an incredible 17 players hit the transfer portal, including quarterback Jayden Daniels who now is competing for the starting job at LSU.

Add in an NCAA investigation, and you can see why this was a bad hire from the start. To me, it feels like the wheels are coming off here. Arizona State does likely have two wins in the non-con with Eastern Michigan and FCS Northern Arizona. Their third is a road trip to Oklahoma State, and I think the Pokes take that game leaving you at 2-1 to start.

Then you get into conference play, and boy, does that not start kindly for ASU. The Sun Devils get Utah, USC, and Washington to start. That looks like 0-3. The rest of the way ASU has winnable games in Stanford, Washington State, Colorado, and Arizona but all of them are on the road. I can see them getting beat in any of those games. Their other two home games are UCLA and Oregon State, both losses in my eyes. Overall, I think this team gets to the bye at 2-4. By that time, the hot seat may be hotter or they may just pull the plug on Edwards and this group may just pack it in. 5-7 seems very likely to me, a lot more likely than 7-5.

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights Under 4 (-120)

It pains me to do this, but I must. I just don’t see it. Last season, Rutgers seemed to take a step forward in trying to build a solid Big Ten program, winning five games. This year, ten starters are back, but I am not sure if that will really make all that much difference.

The quarterback room seems better with 4-star Gavin Wimsatt taking over, but he is a largely unproven commodity. However, the bigger trouble looks to be on the line. Rutgers did bring in some nice transfer pieces to help, but how well will it mesh? I don’t know. This group ranked 120th in total offense a season ago and I don’t see a ton of improvement coming from that group.

Defense, however, is where the regression seems to show for me. In their wins over power five teams, Rutgers had a +9 turnover margin and seemed to rely on those bounces going their way often. It’s hard to replicate that luck, and this year the schedule gets a bit harder.

You’ve likely got four auto losses within your division in Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State. I’d also argue Maryland is likely a loss on the road. Indiana is winnable, but not guaranteed. Then you get your West draws, and Rutgers got the tough end of the stick in 2022. The Knights host Iowa and Nebraska, and have to travel to Minnesota. I could see them nabbing one there, but again, not a guarantee. In the non-con you’ve got two wins in Wagner and Temple, but I don't see them winning at Boston College to start the year with BC having a healthy Phil Jurkovec. It pains me to do it, but I feel like under 4 is a winner here.

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Quick Hitters

USC Trojans under 9.5 (-120): Yes, they got some studs in the portal on offense, but they did nothing to get better on defense. Hype is inflating this number too much.

BYU over 8.5 (+110): This team was great last year and returns nearly everything in 2022. They play a tough schedule with Baylor, Oregon, Arkansas, and Notre Dame on their schedule but I believe all those teams took a step back. I think this team wins 9 games, maybe even 10.

Toledo over 8 (-150): Not the greatest in terms of odds, but I think this team is the best in the MAC and should compete to win more in 2022. Four of their five losses came by one score, so I expect the ball to bounce more in their favor this season.

Vanderbilt over 2.5 (+100): As a Nashville resident I must say Vanderbilt football doesn't get much attention around town, BUT THEY SHOULD. They are winning 3 games this year. This might cash before October.