Tyler’s Take: Week 10 College Football Best Bets

Last week we had some decent games and the betting column stayed on track with another positive week going 4-2. That puts us at 40-18 on the season as we head into week 10. Week 10?!?! Double digits already? This season has gone way too fast. While it’s disappointing, it’s been a great year on the betting side of things so let’s see if we can finish this regular season strong.

(Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.)

Texas Tech (+10.5) @ TCU

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The TCU Horned Frogs have been a team I was on since the preseason and thus far my +1200 ticket for them to win the Big 12 is looking prettttttyyyy good. In addition to winning games, TCU is covering almost every week as they sit 6-1-1 ATS on the season. However, I thought last week might be the week to fade the Horned Frogs but I stayed away. Thankfully so, as TCU came up with a late miracle cover at West Virginia.

This week, I think it’s time to fade TCU in this spot. The Horned Frogs are fresh off a big win on the road at West Virginia and they have Texas on the road next week. All they have to do is get by lowly Texas Tech this week. However, I think Texas Tech is a better team than what their record shows at 4-4 and I think they’ll be able to put up points against this TCU defense that has looked a little shakey at times. On the other side, Texas Tech ranks 13th in defensive success rate so they should have some opportunities to slow down the Horned Frogs. I do expect this one to have some points back and forth, so I think anything in the double digits is too many points in this spot.

Michigan State (+17) @ Illinois

Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Speaking of look-ahead spots, Illinois has a big game on deck next weekend against the Purdue Boilermakers. If both teams take care of business this week Purdue and Illinois will meet next week to likely decide the Big Ten West title. Before that though, Illinois has to get through a down Michigan State team.

Last week, I was on Nebraska +7.5 against Illinois as I thought it was way too many points to be giving the Illini. This week, I have to go back to that well as I think this is FARRRRR too many points in this spot. My projections make this a much shorter line at Illinois -4 so this shows me almost two touchdowns of value with the Spartans. To me, that is way too much to pass up in this spot. Thus far, my numbers have gotten me to a record-breaking season for me when it comes to ROI so I am going to continue to trust them here and take my 17 (!!) points with the Spartans against the Illini.

Tennessee (+8.5) @ Georgia

Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports

GOOD OLE ROCKY TOP, WOO! Boy oh boy, what a game we have in store at 2:30 Saturday as the top-ranked Vols travel to Athens to take on the 3rd-ranked Georgia Bulldogs. This game will likely decide the SEC East and has major playoff implications as well as one team will be knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten.

I think Tennessee has proven that it can hang around with just about anyone in the country so far this season. They have the best resume in college football and deserve to be in that top spot. I know many people think that Georgia is the new almighty power to never bet against, but I don’t know if that holds true here against the Vols. Tennessee is just too explosive of an offense to get shut down consistently and I think that continues here with Hendon Hooker and company.

On the other side, is Georgia as good as we all expect them to be? I think that is a fair question to ask. Yes, the Dawgs did destroy Oregon in the opener but since then they’ve had an absolute cakewalk. The combined record for power five teams they’ve played since Oregon sits at 22-27 and in a few of those games Georgia struggled. Mizzou (4-4) had them down 10 late in the 4th. Kent State (3-6) had them on the ropes in the second half. Even Florida hung around a bit too long last week. Yes, you can only play the teams on your schedule but the Bulldogs have not faced a test anywhere close to this Vols team so I am taking the 8.5 with Tennessee in this spot.

Quick Hitters

Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

Air Force vs. Army Under 40.5: Since 2005, the under is 42-9-1 in games between service academies. You should have known this was coming.

Texas (-2.5) @ Kansas State: Texas comes into this game off of a bye and needs a win to put themselves in the top two in the Big 12 standings. Kansas State is coming off a dominating win over Oklahoma State. I think this is a perfect Texas spot here.

James Madison (+7.5) @ Louisville: Louisville is coming off of a big victory over Wake Forest and they have three big games to end the season after this one in Clemson, NC State, and Kentucky. I think JMU caught the Cardinals in a perfect spot here.