Well, folks, we’re here. One last go-round in the regular season. Thus far, it’s been an incredibly profitable season as the column sits at 49-26-1 on the year. It’s been my personal best season ever, but there are still more opportunities that lie ahead. Let's get into week 13!
(Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.)
Notre Dame (+5.5) @ USC
Last week I bet against USC thinking the luck would finally run out on them, but of course, Caleb Williams played lights out and the Trojans forced Dorian Thompson-Robinson into throwing three interceptions when he’d thrown just four coming into the contest. Coming into this last week the Trojans lead the nation in turnover margin with 25 gained and just four turnovers lost. You can call it what you want, but that is luck plain and simple. That can’t continue forever so I will be betting against this Trojan team the rest of the way out.
Additionally, I think this Notre Dame defense can have some success against this Trojan offense. Coming into this week the Irish rank 15th in the nation against the pass so they’ve been really good at slowing down some solid units this year. As long as this Notre Dame offense can keep clicking as they have been in recent weeks I think they have a good chance to cover this game and win it outright. The luck of the Irish should trump the luck of the Trojans here.
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (+14.5)
BOY OH BOY things have gotten interesting here in Tennessee. Out East, the Vols have fallen from the graces of the top teams after getting the doors blown off by South Carolina. Unfortunately for the Vols, they also lost Hendon Hooker for the season after a torn ACL suffered last Saturday. Truly a brutal weekend for Vols nation.
Here in the Music City though Vanderbilt is on a bit of a heater. Two weeks ago the Commodores picked up their first SEC win in years and last weekend they kept it going by knocking off the Florida Gators. That puts Vandy at 5-6, and a win over the Vols would get them to bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018.
To me, this is a great situational spot for the Commodores. Generally, it’s pretty profitable to bet on a team needing to get a 6th win in the final season, but that motivation should be heightened when playing a rival like Tennessee. Additionally, I wonder how motivated the Vols will be here. They went from a possible playoff bid to likely missing out on the New Year’s Six entirely. Add in that they lost their leader and I think this could spell trouble. Even if Vandy does not win, I think this game will be close so give me the 14 and a hook. Go ‘Dores!
Michigan @ Ohio State over 56
It just wouldn’t be right to not have a bet on The Game. Undefeated Michigan traveling to take on THEE undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes. It should be a grand ole time. To me, I don’t love the spread in this spot but I do think the over is worth a look.
In the last four meetings between these two the over has gone 4-0. Even last year, when it seemed Michigan was working the clock and sustaining drives the over hit with easy fashion.
Now, there certainly are some concerns with Michigan’s offense with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards banged up and their status very much up in the air, but I do think Michigan will find some sort of way for points in this spot. If not, Ohio State will, and if they smell blood I think the Buckeyes will continue to pour it on if they get a lead. This game is pure bad blood and if Ohio State can blow the doors off of Michigan and knock them out of the playoff running I think they’ll take every chance to do so. Give me the over in this spot and let’s all sit back and enjoy this one.
Coastal Carolina (+14) @ James Madison: The Chants are without Grayson McCall but to me this is too many points. I project this to be at just 7 even with McCall out. Backup Bryce Carpenter filled in well and he’s had some extra time to prep heading into this game.
Louisville (+3) @ Kentucky: These two teams come in heading in different directions. Kentucky has lost two straight in bad fashion, while Louisville comes in winners of four of their last five. I make this a pick em so getting a field goal with the Cardinals is enough for me.
Arkansas @ Missouri (+3): In the final week I always like to bet teams looking for their 6th win to get to a bowl. Added motivation goes a long way. I’ll take the Tigers as a home dog in this spot,