The Wisconsin Badgers return to Camp Randall this weekend to take on the Maryland Terps. The Badgers are in need of two wins to get to bowl eligibility, and picking up this one would go a long way in helping get to that 6 win mark. Additionally, it would show continued progress under Jim Leonhard who has had a great start to his tenure as interim Head Coach.
Wisconsin comes into this game 4-4 while Maryland comes in 6-2, but the Badgers still sit as 5-point favorites over the Terps heading into this contest. The total for this game sits at 50.5 according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dive into both of these numbers.
(Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.)
ATS Pick: Maryland (+5)
I’ll be honest, I don’t really love either side of this number. I did expect Wisconsin to be favored in this contest with the game being at Camp Randall, but I did not expect to see it at the 5-point mark. My projections favor the Badgers by 2.5 so anything over 3 presents value to Maryland for me.
Additionally, playing either of these teams from a spread perspective is difficult as both teams have had some inconsistent play. Wisconsin looked great last time out against Purdue, but a week before that they looked like a completely different football team. The same goes for Maryland. One week the Terps are hanging with Michigan and weeks later they are in one-score games with Indiana and Northwestern. Overall, it’s hard to gauge what version of each team you’re going to get especially with both coming off of a bye so I’d likely avoid this one.
Over/Under? Over 50.5
While I don’t love the spread, I do think the total here is a decent play. As previously mentioned, both of these teams are coming into this game off of a bye which should mean both teams are rested and ready to go in this spot.
Traditionally, Wisconsin has always presented value on unders but this year that has changed course as the Badgers continue to show the ability to have some explosiveness on offense. Currently, Wisconsin ranks 12th in passing explosiveness which shows the Badgers can put up points through the air. That is something Wisconsin should be able to continue to do as they are going up against a Maryland team that ranks 103rd in passing yards allowed on the season. I think the Badgers will be able to hit big plays on this Terps defense all game long through the air.
On the other side, this Maryland offense should be able to score some points as well. Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa missed their game last week but should be good to go in this one off of a bye. When he’s been healthy and in there he’s been excellent. Tagovailoa should be able to hit some big plays as well as he’ll be going up against a Wisconsin defense that has struggled against the pass at times this season. Currently, the Badgers rank 84th when it comes to passing success rate on defense. With both offenses able to click through the air I think this game has a pretty good chance of going over the mark of 51.