Last week, well, do we really need to talk about last week? Despite every opportunity, the Badgers were not able to cover against the Iowa Hawkeyes but the under did hit by just a few points as Wisconsin fell 24-10. Another 1-1 week.
This week, Wisconsin will look to bounce back as they hit the road to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska comes into this game struggling as they sit just 3-7 on the season. The line for this game currently sits with Wisconsin as double-digit favorites at -13. The total for this contest is pretty low, sitting at just 39 points according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dive into both of those numbers.
(Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.)
ATS Pick: Wisconsin -13
If you watched all four quarters of Wisconsin’s game last week I am sorry. Nobody should have to sit through that. The offensive performance was abysmal. Personally, I think it was one of the worst we’ve seen the last few years from Wisconsin which is saying something considering there has been some pretty bad outputs.
Based on that, you’d think it would be crazy to lay 13 points with Wisconsin. You might be right, but I think the Badgers can bounce back here and take advantage of a Nebraska run defense that is one of the worst in the nation.
Coming into this week Nebraska ranks 112th in the nation when it comes to rushing yards allowed. Looking into the advanced stats, things are as bleak as they say for the Huskers. When it comes to defensive rushing success rate Nebraska is even worse than that mark as they sit at 122nd in the nation. Things are bad for the Wisconsin offense, but they should be able to run on this group.
Over/under? Hard to say....
The total for this game is pretty low at 39 points. In years past, I would always play the over in this contest as Nebraska has had some success moving the football and putting up points against this Wisconsin defense. However, there is some uncertainty for the Huskers heading into this contest at the quarterback position.
Quarterback Casey Thompson started eight games for the Huskers but has been out the last 2.5 weeks with an elbow injury. Behind him is quarterback Chubba Purdy who played the last two games but Purdy is now out for the season with an ankle injury. That leaves third-string quarterback Logan Smothers, who is also banged up, and walk on Jarrett Synek.
According to reports, Thompson has been back practicing this week and it appears he is day to day with a chance to play. If Thompson does play, I like the over in this matchup as he is a dynamic passer that can make plays with his arm and feet. However, if he does not and Nebraska is rolling out a 3rd or 4th string kid I would go with the under as the Badger's defense should be able to feast on inexperience and a weak offensive line.