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Tyler’s Take: Which teams still present value to win their conference?

Is it time to let your tickets ride or try and hedge? Let’s take a look.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 27 Ohio State at Michigan Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

It’s the bye week for Wisconsin football which means we will not have our annual Wisconsin Betting Preview. In place of that, let’s take a look around the country and see what the current odds and best bets are for some conference futures as we enter the home stretch.

(Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 23 Clemson at Pitt Photo by Michael Longo/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

ACC Conference

Currently, the Clemson Tigers are by far and away the favorite to win the ACC sitting at -600 at Draftkings. That doesn’t present any value, especially given the way Clemson has played throughout the season. Given that Clemson already holds the tiebreaker over division foes Syracuse and Wake Forest I think the value lies in the Coastal Division.

This weekend, Pitt travels to North Carolina in a huge matchup for the division. In the preseason, I bet Pitt to win the ACC and despite the two conference losses I still think there is value here that you’d want to bet BEFORE Saturday. If Pitt does in fact win they hold the tiebreaker over North Carolina and would just need the Tar Heels to drop another ACC game. With Wake Forest and NC State still on the schedule that is more than feasible so I think Pitt +4000 has some value still.

Big 12 Conference

In the preseason I bet TCU to win the Big 12 at +1200 and so far that is looking very possible as the Horned Frogs are now the favorites in the conference at +140. Given that they are the only team undefeated in the conference, and that they have wins over both the second-place teams in Kansas State and Oklahoma State, it's clear that TCU will likely be in the title game.

However, the Big 12 takes their top two so Kansas State, Texas, and Oklahoma State are still alive as that second team. Kansas State travels to Oklahoma State this weekend so again betting before Saturday will be crucial. To me, the value lies with Oklahoma State in this current spot at +260. If they beat Kansas State this weekend they’ll hold the tiebreaker over both Kansas State and Texas heading into the final four weeks of the season. That should give them a really good leg up on getting that second spot, and then all they’ve got to do is beat TCU in the title game. For me, I’ve got a TCU ticket at pretty large odds already but hedging some profit with Oklahoma State isn’t a bad idea.

Ohio State v Michigan Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images

Big Ten Conference

The Big Ten is pretty simple from a betting standpoint. Personally, I don’t see any team in the West winning should they get to the title game so that all but wipes that side out for me from a value side.

In the East, it really comes down to who you think will win the division between Ohio State and Michigan. As it sits right now Ohio State is the favorite, but the odds are very low for the Buckeyes as they sit at -600 to win the conference. Given that, Michigan is the only team that holds real value at this point. Currently, Michigan sits at +240 which is good odds, but those odds might not be as good as just waiting to bet Michigan on the Moneyline in their contest with Ohio State to end the season. For me, I’d wait on this one until that gets closer and then bet whatever odds are better heading into that contest as I don't see either Michigan or Ohio State getting beat until they play one another.

Southeastern Conference

The SEC is fascinating from a betting perspective. Currently, Georgia is the favorite to win the conference at -110. Alabama is second in terms of odds at +140 while Tennessee sits as the third favorite at +600. Behind them is LSU at +2500 who is still very much alive to win the conference. Given Tennessee/Georgia and LSU/Bama both play on November 5th, we could see some serious shifting in the conference after those contests.

If I were to throw a bet down, I think I’d take a flyer on LSU +2500. I like the Vols at +600, but if they lose to Georgia they’re blocked out of the title game. LSU on the other hand has the talent in the right spots to knock off Alabama which would put them on a path to win the SEC West. It’s a long shot, but I think the Tigers upsetting Alabama is possible and given the larger odds I think it's worth some couch change.

2021 Pac-12 Championship Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

PAC 12 Conference

The PAC 12 is also incredibly interesting given their switch from divisions to the top two teams in the conference. Given that switch, four teams are still very much alive. Oregon sits at the top undefeated in the conference but USC, UCLA, and Utah are still alive with one loss.

I bet Utah to win the conference at +240 to start the year, and I think the value still sits with them right now at +425. The Utes currently hold the tiebreaker with USC after their 43-42 victory over the Trojans and they also still have Oregon on the schedule. If the Utes can win that game they’re almost guaranteed to be in the PAC 12 title game by holding tiebreakers over two of the three others. From there all they’ve gotta do is win! I took the Utes early, and I am sticking with them here in this spot.