Tyler’s Take: Week 4 College Football Betting Preview

So far things have been going pretty good on the betting circuit for me, but last week we took a tough hit as the column went 3-5 and honestly, I’ll take it. At one point I was staring 0-8 right in the face so to come away 3-5 was absolutely a win.

It was a tough week, and those happen. The good bettors don’t rest on wins or get caught up in losses, they just fire again so that’s what we are doing. LET'S GO FIND SOME WINNERS!

North Carolina (-12.5) @ Georgia Tech

Last week these two teams played a game with very different results, and I think that will impact them greatly this week. One team, Georgia Tech, comes into this contest after a very tough loss at Clemson 14-8. They battled through a two-hour lighting delay and had the Tigers on the ropes IN Death Valley but were unable to come away with a victory.

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North Carolina, on the other hand, played in a shootout with Virginia and came away with a victory 59-39. The offense looked in sync, putting up an impressive 699 yards of total offense. 39 points on defense aren’t ideal, but I can’t foresee Georgia Tech matching the 553 yards passing that Virginia put up in that contest.

Overall, this feels like a tough spot for a Georgia Tech team that I personally don’t think is very good. Yes, they hung with Clemson, but this team also got beat by Northern Illinois. Neither of those teams has passing attacks like North Carolina, and I can’t foresee Georgia Tech scoring with the Tar Heels. This Yellow Jacket roster is still trying to move away from the triple option, and I don’t think this is a spot where they can hang around. I’ll lay the points on the road with UNC.

Texas A&M (-4.5) vs. Arkansas

Last week, Georgia Southern was one of my favorite plays against the Arkansas Razorbacks. I thought it was a tough spot for the Hogs and thought we’d catch them looking ahead to this contest. Kudos to them, I was wrong. This week, the Hogs feel like a veryyyyy trendy underdog that a lot of people like. Right now the Razorbacks are getting 75% of the reported money backing them.

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That to me screams run the other way. I have been impressed with what Arkansas has done, but they have not faced a team quite like this A&M squad yet. Yes, A&M has had their offensive struggles but their defense is as stout as they come. Especially upfront on the line with dominating players like Jayden Peevy and Demarvin Leal.

I think that front will pose a lot of problems to Arkansas who are dealing with some offensive line issues as their center and right tackle have not been able to practice this week. This is not a defensive line you want to take on shorthanded.

This A&M group has given up just 17 points in their three contests. Yes, against lesser competition, but I think they are as good as advertised and I like the matchup against a reeling Arkansas line. The A&M offense is a bit different without QB Haynes King, but backup Zach Calzada seemed to do enough a week ago to make me feel comfortable laying the small number here.

Nebraska (+5) @ Michigan State

Michigan State is playing great, they’re undefeated, they’re at home and they’re taking on a team that has been the butt of a lot of jokes for years in Nebraska. Surefire slam dock lock to cash right? As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friends.

Michigan State is getting 69% (editor’s note: HEY-O!) of the money in this contest and has been getting the majority all week but this number has stayed pretty much at 5, and in some cases we’ve seen reverse line movement back to 4.5 and even 4 in some spots. That equation doesn’t add up. My numbers make this game Nebraska +2, so I think that same value is there.

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As for the game itself, I like what I saw from Nebraska last week. They made some mistakes, but I think they’re better than what a lot of people are giving them credit for. On the other hand, are we sure Michigan State is that good? Yes they’ve won all three games and done so in good fashion but lets look deeper at who they have played. Northwestern? Not very good. Youngstown State? They were 1-6 a year ago in FCS play. Miami (Fla.)? That team looks downright awful. To me, this line is a bit too high and I think Nebraska has a really good shot to cover and win this game outright.

Quick Hitters

Iowa State (-6.5) @ Baylor: I grabbed this right away when it opened at 6.5. None out there now, but worth trying to get. The Cyclones got some things right against UNLV last week. I think their offense will be better and their defense should give Baylor fits in this spot.

Florida Atlantic (+5.5) @ Air Force: Fading triple-option teams when favored hits nearly 60% of the time. My numbers also make FAU a favorite here, so this is a principle play and numbers play for me.

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Indiana @ Western Kentucky (+9): If you’ve read any of my stuff thus far you know I am high on the Hilltoppers. Bailey Zappe has been incredible thus far. I think getting a Big Ten team at home in primetime will allow WKU to cover and possibly win this game outright. Can you really trust this Indiana team after that choke job a week ago?

Ohio (+14.5) @ Northwestern: Yes, Ohio has lost all three of their games and one was to Duquense. That being said, this Northwestern team does not deserve to be favored by 14.5 points against anyone other than the bottom feeders like UCONN and Akron.

Illinois @ Purdue Under 53: Lot of wind going through the Midwest this weekend and it would be criminal to not have an under bet on the card. I like this one the best. Purdue is struggling offensively with injures and Illinois is, well, Illinois.