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Wisconsin football: what does ESPN’s FPI think of UW at the quarter pole of the season?

The Badgers sit at a disappointing 1-1 early in the season. How has that changed their projected win total?

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 11 Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Outside of the Wisconsin Badgers, every team in the Big Ten has completed a quarter of their season (with Nebraska and Illinois having completed a third) so it’s a good time to look at where everyone stands and how things might have changed since the preseason.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is a pretty good metric to try and and get a handle on how the rest of a team’s season will go. As a quick reminder, here is what FPI measures according to ESPN:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

Wisconsin, as of Sunday morning, ranks No. 6 in the Big Ten per FPI and No. 2 in the Big Ten West, behind Iowa. The Badgers are still ranked No. 19 in the country which, all things considered, is right about where everyone thinks they should be ranked. Here are some other predictions and percentages per FPI:

Projected W/L: 7.4-4.8
Win out %: 0.2
6Wins%: 89.8
Win division%: 19.4
Win conference%: 6.2

Judging by FPI, Michigan has the best chance to represent the Big Ten in the College Football Playoff and Iowa is predicted to have the most wins in the conference and, quite frankly, that makes me want to drink hot coffee (I drink cold coffee all year, like a grownup).

Wisconsin is still, barely, favored to beat Notre Dame on Saturday, but they are now underdogs against Michigan and Iowa.

How are y’all feeling about the rest of the season? More confident? Less confident? The same amount of confidence because you are strong in your convictions?