The calendar has turned to November and so far this season I’ve been relatively even in the betting circuit. Looking at the numbers I am 40-40-1 on the year (+0.99 units). Essentially, it’s been a lot of money pushing around but we’re still in the green and that is better than in the red. Now we’re into November so we’ve got some opportunities to get warm and find some winners. Without further ado, let's get into week 10.
Auburn @ Texas A&M Under 49.5
Texas A&M comes into this game riding high after three straights win and a bye week to get ready for the final SEC West stretch. That stretch will start against the Auburn Tigers in a battle for the number two spot in the SEC West and just maybeeeee an SEC Title Berth depending on how things break in the Iron Bowl. This is a big one.
For Texas A&M they’ve found some things offensively during their win streak but I am still not sure if I trust this offense to the point where I see them putting up big numbers against a good Auburn unit. In a tight battle like this I think Jimbo Fisher is a type of coach that will try and work this game out by keeping the ball on the ground and try to keep his offense in positive situations.
On the other side you’ve once again got Bo Nix on the road, in a hostile environment. Nix has played well at games at Penn State, at LSU, and at Arkansas but I think this A&M defense is better than each of those. Additionally, the Aggies defensive front has some dudes that have not played to their potential just yet, but I imagine they’ll be hungry to take on a guy like Tank Bygsby. At the end of the day I don’t trust either offense all that much, and I like both defenses to play good games so I think this could be a 24-20 type contest and hit the under.
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia Under 49.5
When you think of Oklahoma State you generally think of explosive offense and meh defense but these Cowboy’s ain’t your older brothers Cowboys. No sir, these Cowboys are built on defense and surviving on offense. Sound familiar, Wisconsin fans?
This Pokes defense has been incredible all year long, especially against the run. They’ve given up just 2.6 yards per carry and rank as one of the top rushing defenses in the country, coming in at No. 9 in terms of total rush defense. On the other side, West Virginia’s defense is no slouch either. The Mountaineers are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and come in as the nation's No. 31 ranked run defense.
Additionally, neither offense has been all that impressive. Oklahoma State comes in ranked No. 71 in terms of total offense, and West Virginia ranks No. 67. To me, I think this is an affair that could be a slugfest that makes even Big Ten fans get excited. Honestly, I was a bit floored when the total came out to be 49.5 here as my projections put it at more like 42.5. Based on that, you’re getting nearly a touchdown of value so I have to play it in this spot.
Michigan State @ Purdue (+3)
I mean, c’mon. If I am a Michigan State fan this game strikes absolute panic into me. Last week, Sparty comes from behind to beat their in-state rival in one of the greatest games of the season. In turn they’ve got a guy in the Heisman conversation and are currently sitting in the college football playoff. Given the spot, Purdue is thee last team I would want to see, especially on the road. They’re giant killers and I could very well see that again here.
Really, this is just a situational spot for me. I don’t have a ton of numbers that make this scream Purdue, but the spot just seems like too much to pass up. In one corner you’ve got a team riding high, and in another you’ve got a traditional spoiler. Additionally, I think Michigan State is due for a dud performance at some point, and I am still a bit Bearish on the Spartans being as good as their ranking indicates. There’s a reason why this game is only three points, and the spot is why. Additionally, I also like the under in this matchup.
Army at Air Force under 38: Since 2005 the under is 39-9-1 when service academies meet. Oddsmakers have set the total low and everyone is saying to zig instead of zag here but I am not a cop so I am riding with the gravy train until it fails me. Over’s be damned.
Mizzou (+39.5) @ Georgia or Under 60: I am still figuring out how I want to play this but doesn’t 40 points in a conference game seem a bit high? Georgia was only favored by 36 against Vandy for God’s Sake. One Mizzou touchdown probably gets the cover, right? We’ll see, still kicking this one around some.
Colorado State @ Wyoming Under 41: 17-20 MPH winds should help but aside from that these two teams have putrid offenses that struggle to do anything right. I like the under here.
Tulane @ UCF Under 59.5: Speaking of wind we’ve got 18 MPH winds in the forecast at the bounce house. Additionally, Tulane’s quarterback Michael Pratt took a brutal hit last week and may not play here. UCF’s offense has sputtered without Dillon Gabriel as well, so I like the under here.
UTSA @ UTEP Over 53: It would be abusrd to not have a pick in the game of the week between our two darlings. I can’t pick between the two so let’s just take the over and hope we all have fun because that’s what this thing is all about right? (Editor’s note: that’s right.)