Week 12 already?! Man, this college football season has flown by way too fast. Honestly, it feels like just the other day the season got started and now the regular season is nearly over. Thankfully though, we’ve still got two big weekends of college football left and the pressure is starting to rise as teams make their push for conference championships. The pressure is also rising in the betting department to try and find some more winners so without further ado, let's get into it!
North Texas (-10) @ Florida International
Ok, so this is probably not how you expected this column to start and that is completely fair. However, sometimes there’s money in the crumbs. Maybe you haven't paid much attention to FIU football this season, but it’s been pretty bleak. The Pathers are 1-9 on the season, losers of nine straight, and this past week their head coach, Butch Davis, resigned stating that the football program was being “sabotaged”. Davis added that this year has been a “nightmare” and that the program had to buy pads from Mississippi State that were five years old because of poor finances...not great, Bob!
To me, I think this team might be on Quit Alert with all the circumstances around them. In turn, that is a profitable spot to play on North Texas. I don’t love betting a 4-6 team laying double digits on the road, but when you’re 1-9 and have all that going on it’s hard to see players buying into this game.
The quit factor in some of these teams late in the season is there, and I can see no better situation than this dumpster fire that is FIU. I think the Mean Green can come in and exploit that here as they try to win their final two games and get to a bowl game.
Baylor @ Kansas State Under 50
Last week I thought Oklahoma would come out and get things right against Baylor and I was sorely mistaken. Instead, Baylor’s defense completely shut down the Sooners and picked up a huge victory in regards to the Big 12 race.
This week Baylor travels to Kansas State to take on a team that plays a very similar style of football. The Wildcats have quietly had a really good year, and they’ve held their opponents to under 30 points in their last four contests. The best phase of that group has been against the run, as the Wildcats are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry on the ground. I think Baylor’s run-heavy approach will play right into the Kansas State defense’s hand.
On the other side, Kansas State loves to run the football with the duo of Skylar Thompson and Duece Vaughn, but they will be running into a tough front seven as well that is allowing just 3.5 yards per carry themselves. Essentially, we’ve got two teams that love to run the football and play really good defense. To me, that recipe calls for an under. I couldn’t believe this total; was at 50 when it first came out. I think that’s nearly a touchdown too high so I’ll take the under in what I believe will be a slugfest type of game in Kansas.
Michigan State (+19) @ Ohio State
In what might be the game of the week, we’ve got a huge contest in the Big Ten East. The winner gets a leg up in the division title race heading into the final weekend of the season. Last week, Ohio State came out and handled their business against Purdue to set up two huge final weeks for them as they get both Michigan State and Michigan to finish the year. I believe Ohio State will be ready to play in this game, but I did notice something interesting for the Buckeyes in regards to their contests the week BEFORE Michigan.
In the last seven outings, the Ohio State Buckeyes have failed to cover the spread in the week before The Game. Now, this game is huge for their season so I don’t think Ohio State is looking ahead per se, but I do think they could get caught take just a slight peak.
Additionally, I think Michigan State is a pretty good football team. They’ve got a Heisman candidate in Kenneth Walker, and his presence should help the Spartans move the football consistently and put up points against a Buckeye defense that still has problems. Ohio State is playing better of late, but I still don’t know if I can trust them to cover 19 points in this spot. Feels like a game that could have the backdoor in play all game long.
Wake Forest @ Clemson over 57: I have not won an over bet all season long, but I think this could be the spot. Wake’s defense should help Clemson put up points and the Wake offense can score on the best of them. 57 feels low here.
Rutgers (+17.5) @ Penn State: Does Penn State really deserve to be 17 point favorites here? Rutgers isn’t very good, but I am not sure they are THAT bad.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma under 59.5: Oklahoma’s offense just isn’t very good like in year’s past, and Iowa State’s isn’t much better. Feels like a lot of points when you add in 17 MPH winds.
UAB (+4.5) @ UTSA: UTSA has been an incredible story but UAB is a tough out in this spot. I hate to say it but I think Meep Meep might fall here. (Editor’s note: HOW DARE YOU!)