Tyler’s Take: Week 11 College Football Betting Preview

After middling around even for most of the college football season, the betting column finally hit gold with a 7-1 week last Saturday. It was exactly what was needed to start the final quarter of the season. Now we try to keep that momentum going in the final quarter of what has been an incredible college football season. Without further ado let’s get into Week 11 and try to find some more winners!

Oklahoma (-5.5) @ Baylor

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The college football playoff rankings have had a lot of questionable calls in the first two weeks of their release, and one of the underrated storylines is the low ranking of Oklahoma who comes in as an undefeated team at No. 8. The Sooners have played poorly throughout this season, but they still have a zero in the loss column. I think that ranking probably puts a sour taste in their mouth, and this will be the week for them to really come out and prove something.

Yes, this Oklahoma team was losing to Kansas at one point just a few weeks ago, but I do think they’ve gotten better with Caleb Williams at the helm of this team. Now they are coming off of a bye which should allow Williams to mesh and the offense to figure things out. Additionally, the Sooners are getting some guys back healthy defensively.

Lastly, I just don’t really buy this Baylor team all that much. They were torched last week against Chandler Morris at TCU, and I think Reilly and company should be able to exploit that here as well. The Sooners are in need of a statement game and this seems like the spot where they could really set themselves up for a run at the playoff so give me the Sooners laying under a touchdown.

Michigan @ Penn State Under 48.5

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We’ve got a huge game in the Big Ten East this week as Michigan travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. It should be a classic slugfest type of game with wind, rain, and maybe even a few flurries of snow. A beautiful sight. As for the game itself, I think these two teams will struggle to score so I like the under in this spot.

Penn State has really struggled running the football in recent weeks, and in turn, everything has been put on Jahan Dotson and Sean Clifford to hit explosive plays. Clifford hasn’t been 100%, and in turn you’ve seen an offense that has completely sputtered out at times. Last week they got some things right against Maryland, but this Michigan defense is much better than the Terps as they enter this week as the sixth ranked team in terms of total defense. They’ve been especially good against the pass, ranking eighth in terms of passing yards allowed so Penn State may have to continue to try and hit on the ground some.

On the other side Michigan’s offense has been pretty solid all season long despite the situation at quarterback. They’ve put up points on the ground and taken care of the football, but the turnovers bit them on their last road trip. J.J. McCarthey had a killer fumble at Michigan State and Cade McNamara threw a late pick in that contest.

I think that in this road atmosphere that Harbaugh and company may try to play a little bit more conservatively and hang onto the ball rather than let Penn State hit some explosive plays. If you’ve got a run game and a defense you can lean on, I expect Michigan to try and do so, so I think 48 points might be a bit too high here.

Washington State (+14) @ Oregon

Last week Purdue came out and knocked off Michigan State in what seemed like a spot where Sparty could be caught flat. I think that same logic could come here in a very trappy game for the Oregon Ducks.

Last week, the Ducks went to Seattle and got a huge win over their bitter rival in Washington. Next week, the Ducks have a HUGE contest in Salt Lake City against the Utah Utes to help bolster them toward the college football playoff. Sandwiched in between there? Washington State. If this situation sounds familiar see Oregon’s 2019 season where they had to win out and laid an egg against Arizona State.

On the other sideline, Washington State has been a team that I actually think is pretty good given some tough circumstances. All season their former head coach Nick Rolovich had been a distraction with his COVID vaccine status, and despite that and his eventual firing this team has played pretty well. They’ve won three of four in the wake of all that happening, and last week knocked off Arizona State.

The Cougars don’t do anything overly great, but they have found a way to win, and I have to imagine they would love to play the spoiler role here. I can’t trust the Ducks in this spot, and I think the Cougars will be hungry to get the attention based on their play and not their former coach, so I like them here covering 14 and I might just sprinkle a little on the money line for funsies.

Quick Hitters

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Rutgers (+7) @ Indiana: Rutgers is 4-5 and in need of a couple of wins to go bowling. Indiana is 2-7 and I think they’ve kinda mailed in the rest of the season. Also, Indiana doesn’t deserve to be a touchdown favorite against literally anyone. Gimme the Scarlet Knights.

Houston (-24.5) @ Temple: Speaking of teams mailing it in, I think Temple has completely quit on this season. Houston needs some convincing wins to get into the rankings so I think a blowout is in order here.

Mississippi State @ Auburn Under 50.5: Mississippi State’s defense is top 20 in the nation and I don’t think their offense will be able to move the ball much on Auburn’s secondary so i’ll take an under here.

Iowa State @ Texas Tech Under 58.5: 15 MPH winds are being called for in this game, and I think ISU’s defense can put a hamper on Texas Tech so gimme the under here too,

Purdue (+850) @ Ohio State: I mean, you have to right? I doubt it happens but if it does I don't want to be on the sidelines.