Wisconsin football: Purdue betting preview

Last week was a good week for the betting column as the Army Black Knights covered with relative ease, and the under cashed in even easier fashion. This week the attention turns to Purdue who are fresh off a huge win over then No. 2 Iowa.

The spread for this contest opened with Wisconsin as a 2.5 point favorite, but has now risen to three, per DraftKings Sportsbook, and held there fairly steadily. The total for this game opened at 39.5 and has stayed between that and the 40 mark for most of the week. We’ll dive into both of those contests, but first, some notable trends.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

• Wisconsin is 16-6 ATS as a road favorite under Paul Chryst
• Wisconsin is 19-9 ATS in road games under Paul Chryst
• Wisconsin is 27-28-1 ATS in conference games under Paul Chryst
• Purdue is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog under Jeff Brohm
• Purdue is 16-6 ATS as an underdog under Jeff Brohm
• Purdue is 19-17 ATS in conference games under Jeff Brohm

ATS Pick: Purdue (+3)

Often times in sports betting you’ll hear the term “stinky line” which essentially means something smells fishy. Wisconsin has had it multiple times this year taking the field as favorites against Notre Dame and Michigan to name a few. However, this week’s line might take the case for stinkiest yet.

Wisconsin comes in winners of two straight but neither one was all that impressive. Purdue on the other hand comes in off of a huge win over the No. 2 team in the nation at that time. Sure, you could argue a letdown spot after that massive win, but I still don’t think that is worth making the line -3 in favor of Wisconsin, especially when going against a team they’ve beat 14 straight years.

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

If the Badgers we’re in a road dog spot, maybe, but laying points with them as a favorite is something I just cannot do right now. I mean, take a look at Wisconsin’s recent streak as favorites. In their last 15 contest as a favorite, the Badgers are 5-9-1 against the spread with seven outright losses. Your money doesn’t deserve to be laid on this team right now.

Additionally, in the notable trends section, you do see some clash of strengths. Wisconsin has thrived under Paul Chryst in winning these games as road favorites. However, Jeff Brohm has thrived as an underdog and will certainly be preaching the Wisconsin win streak all week long. Something will have to give here, and right now Purdue seems to be the more reasonable spot.

Over/Under? Under 40

I don’t have a great feel on things from the total’s perspective here but at this point in the season doesn’t the under just feel like an autoplay until proven otherwise? There have been some games that Wisconsin has killed the under by not hanging onto the football, but they were still the correct play despite the losses.

Until we see a Wisconsin offense really put up points (like, more than 24) it’s hard to put hard-earned cash on an over bet unless you see Purdue’s offense putting together a decent amount of scoring which is not something I see right now either.

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Yes, the Boilermakers beat Iowa a week ago, but before that, this offense was struggling to find the end zone. In their three contests before that Iowa game Purdue scored just 13 points in all three of them. That mark will not get it done, and now they face quite possibly the toughest defense yet. I’ll take the dog and the under once again until I get burned.