Coaching changes. Academics. Playing time. Location. Style of play. Legal troubles.

Ultimately various reasons can be the deciding factor in a recruit’s decision to decommit from a program. With the recruiting calendar speeding up across the country over the past handful of seasons, players second guessing their original declaration has become quite commonplace.

Yet the 2021 class could prove to be especially interesting, given the fact that a lot of prospects are having to make choices without actually setting foot on campus because of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Add in coaching staffs having not had the chance to do thorough in-person evaluations, and the 2021 class could prove to be the biggest roller coaster ride in recent recruiting history.

According to 247Sports recruiting analyst Bud Elliott there have been over 900 commitments made by 2021 prospects thus far across the country, while at this same time last year in the 2020 class there were only around 400 players verbally committed.

With the potential for an epic decommitment cycle on the horizon, we at B5Q thought it might be a fun exercise to look back at how decommitments have shaken out for the seven teams that comprise the B1G West since Paul Chryst took over the reigns at Wisconsin during the 2015 recruiting cycle.

For each team we will dive into how many players ventured elsewhere in each recruiting class, what type of recruiting ranking they had according to their 247Sports Composite Ranking (ACR stands for average composite ranking), and where they eventually landed after their decommitment.

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Wisconsin

Firstly, I am going to preface this by bringing to light that the 2015 recruiting class was partially done by Gary Andersen, and finished by Paul Chryst amidst the coaching change. The resulting 10 decommitments largely stemmed from coaching changes — both at head coach but also Chris Beatty took multiple players with him to Virginia — academic casualties such as Mohammad Berry and Jordan Stevenson, and then there were other players such as Brandyn Lee who at the time were not a take for the new staff.

That year notwithstanding, Wisconsin has been pretty consistent in mitigating the chances of decommits. In the 2016 class, both Antonio Williams and Craig Watts committed to at least three separate schools during their process, and eventually transferred after signing with their final choice.

The Badgers had the Ben Bryant situation that turned into Chase Wolf being the only quarterback taken in the 2018 class, while Trent Ingalls opted to give up football prior to signing anywhere.

The three players that were actually pure decommitments in an effort to find a better “fit” for the Badgers was the players in the 2019 class. Part of a really good class for Wisconsin, Nolan Groulx and Bryson Shaw each chose to play closer to home, while Marcus Graham went on to pursue his education at Stanford after being accepted.

Overall, Wisconsin is on par with their B1G West counterparts in terms of total number of decommitments since Paul Chryst took over, and that number is much better when the hybrid 2015 class is removed from the data set.

Biggest loss: While I think an argument can be made for multiple running backs on this list, Nolan Groulx is a player that I think Wisconsin would have loved to have in the 2019 class. Four-star wide receivers aren’t usually knocking down the door to come to Wisconsin, and he is a very talented player. In the end Groulx should fit nicely at Wake Forest as the heir apparent to Sage Surratt in that offense.

Biggest misevaluation: Sometimes recruits do not progress at the same level that they are projected to, and Brandyn Lee definitely fits that mold. While he was partially a victim of the 2015 coaching change, his offer list and final commitment to UC-Davis illustrates a poor evaluation on behalf of the former coaching staff.

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Iowa

One of the more consistent teams in the past 20 years in college football, Iowa has also been relatively consistent on the recruiting front as well. With a rigid no visit policy for committed prospects, Iowa has been relatively unscathed from decommits outside of the 2017 and 2018 classes.

Iowa prides itself on early evaluations and has a strong track record — similar to Wisconsin — for turning lower rated players into NFL products on an annual basis.

Overall, Iowa is on the lower end of the scale in regards to total decommitments, something likely propped up by being one of the only teams in the division to not have a major coaching change during this time period. Recent events within the program could test that theory and the dedication of their current commitments however, especially given the nature of what has unfolded.

Biggest loss: Eno Benjamin. Benjamin was one of the top running backs in the country over the past few seasons at Arizona State after decommitting from Iowa due to the no visit policy. The former four-star tailback was recently selected in the NFL Draft, and he would have been a notable addition to the Iowa offense after Akrum Wadley exhausted his eligibility.

Biggest misevaluation: A name that most Wisconsin recruitniks may remember is Mike Bruner. The first commitment for Iowa in the 2018, Bruner did not progress at the rate that Iowa had hope for after securing his early verbal after completion of his junior season. The low three-star linebacker would later land at North Dakota.

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Minnesota

A school that has definitely been hit hard with decommitments during this time frame is Minnesota. To be fair, the Gophers have endured three separate head coaches during this span of time, but the numbers are significantly higher than their West division opponents.

Jerry Kill had things relatively calm at the tail end of his tenure before stepping away due to health concerns, but the transition between Kill to Tracy Claeys, and later P.J. Fleck definitely threw a wrench in the flywheel that is recruiting. During that two year window from the 2016 to 2017 classes, Minnesota had 23 decommitments, head and shoulders greater than any other team in the division had over the entire time encompassed in our data.

Since that time, the rate of decommitments has certainly gone down at Minnesota, but the 24 players that have backed away from their pledge under Fleck since the start of the 2018 cycle is still fairly alarming.

Fleck has noticeably improved the caliber of athletes coming onto campus, but the propensity for players to continue searching for different options after their commitment or not be up to snuff talent or grade wise later in the process can’t be ignored in Minneapolis.

Biggest loss: Minnesota has done a nice job of improving the talent level along the offensive line in recent years, but Jalen Mayfield was an honorable mention All-Big Ten performer as a sophomore after decommitting from the Gophers. Adding him into the mix with some of the offensive lineman that are currently along the Minnesota line probably would have seemed nice for fans.

I thought of picking Kristian Williams, a redshirt freshman defensive tackle at Oregon for this spot as well, especially given the high number of defensive line recruits who decommitted under Fleck, but Mayfield is a proven commodity that is already earning heavy praise in NFL circles going into his junior season.

Biggest misevaluation: There are a couple of different options to turn to here given that there were decent number of players who decommitted and later wound up at lower level Group of Five teams, but for the sake of this exercise I will go with the 2017 offensive line group.

In that cycle four offensive lineman decommitted, and only one of those players ended up at a Power Five school. While Minnesota rebounded nicely by bringing in some star power lineman in the 2018 class, the number of players that dropped down a level after committing to Minnesota in the 2017 class is noteworthy.

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Nebraska

In total, Nebraska has done fairly well at steering clear of decommitments. The Cornhuskers, like most other teams in the division, underwent a coaching change during this period, switching from Mike Riley to Scott Frost during the 2018 cycle. That shift in personnel influenced the higher decommitment numbers that season, but overall Nebraska has been relatively consistent with only a few changes each year.

One noticeable trend for Nebraska in this study is the number of players that decommit and end up at upper tier Power-5 programs. Unlike some of the schools on their side of the division, most players are not leaving due to misevaluation. Rather, players choose an offer that they deem to be a better fit for them often.

The general trend under Scott Frost has been quite a bit higher than it had been under Mike Riley, but three to four players going elsewhere is not out of the norm across the college football landscape.

Biggest loss: Brendan Radley-Hines is a logical choice here. Not only was he the highest rated decommitted player for the Cornhuskers, but he has been a multi-year starter at defensive back for Oklahoma since.

Radley-Hines is a physical defensive back that would have fit in nicely for a Nebraska defense that has been fairly hit or miss against the run in recent years. Add in the fact that he is a California kid and went to IMG Academy, and those pipelines are hard to ignore as added bonuses.

Biggest misevaluation: Wide receiver Eric Fuller gets my vote here. The lower-ranked three-star wide receiver had some off the field concerns that ultimately doomed his collegiate future, and turned his potential career completely sideways.

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Northwestern

If Minnesota is an outlier on the high end of the spectrum, Northwestern is on the complete opposite side of the coin in terms of decommitments.

Coaching continuity under Pat Fitzgerald is a big reason for the Wildcats only having a handful of recruiting losses since 2015. The former Northwestern alum hinted that there may be more decommitments coming in the 2021 class as a whole, for many of the same reasons I alluded to earlier, but Northwestern has done a great job of avoiding it as a program.

As a high academic school, Northwestern is generally very particular about the athletes that they pursue, and do their due diligence in the recruiting process to make sure an athlete is a fit in the classroom before they offer a scholarship. Add in a no visit policy under Fitzgerald, and the results have been fairly good for the Wildcats, and has made Evanston a relatively drama free spot for recruiting.

Biggest loss: I’m going to say three-star quarterback Cale Millen. For a team with one of the worst offensive seasons in program history last season, Northwestern could have really used a solid quarterback to turn to. A highly regarded prospect out of Washington, Millen chose to instead go to Oregon, and the Wildcats did not end up taking a scholarship freshman that season.

Biggest misevaluation: In looking across the list of decommits, there aren’t really any weaknesses. Northwestern didn’t have a huge miss in terms of social, academic, or talent level in any of the five players.

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Purdue

The perception and overall recruiting success of the Purdue football program has drastically changed since 2015 in large part because of Jeff Brohm.

Darrell Hazell’s short time at Purdue was not great on the recruiting front, or on the field. While there was not a huge slew of decommitments, the level of talent was not strong enough to compete in the Big Ten.

Since Jeff Brohm’s hiring in December of 2016 though, Purdue has done a much better job in recruiting. For example in 2016, Hazell’s last year at the helm, Purdue’s class ranked No. 80 and did not have a single four-star prospect. Flash forward to 2019, and Brohm landed the No. 25 class and had four four-star recruits sign.

Purdue has seen an uptick in recruiting under Brohm, but there has also been a slight increase in decommitments as well. In his first four classes Brohm has 17 decommitments, with five prospects in the 2018/2019 classes eventually signing with lower tier programs, generally a symptom of misevaluations or subpar projections.

Brohm’s numbers are definitely skewed because of the coaching change during the 2017 class, so holistically Purdue is doing just fine, and Purdue fans should be happy with the progress under one of the highest paid coaches in the conference.

Biggest loss: Christian Gonzalez is not only the highest rated decomitment under Brohm, but he could have been a very talented defensive playmaker for the Boilermakers. Purdue has been very good offensively under Brohm, but Gonzalez is the type of athlete that could have elevated the defense.

Biggest misevaluation: Mitch West. A two-star cornerback that eventually landed at Navy, West did not hold another Power-5 offer outside of Purdue. The 5-foot-10 prospect was a reach at the time of his commitment given his other options, and thus far he has primarily been a special teams player for the Midshipmen.

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Illinois

Another team that underwent various coaching changes recently, Illinois had their largest class of decommits happened during a series of transition between Tim Beckman, Bill Cubit, and their current head coach Lovie Smith.

Under Smith, Illinois has steadily improved the talent level of the team via high school prospects and the transfer portal, and helped Illinois get to their first bowl game in some time last season.

The Fighting Illini have consistently had a couple decommitments each season under Smith, but nothing out of the ordinary. At this point Illinois is in a much improved place, and their decommitment numbers are at a very normal level in comparison to their B1G West brethren.

Biggest loss: Devin Singletary might have been the lowest ranked player to decommit from Illinois, but he turned out to have a tremendous career in college and now is making waves in the NFL. The Florida product decided to stay closer to home and play for FAU instead of sticking with his commitment to Illinois.

In the end he had three straight 1,000 yard rushing seasons and was a third round pick by the Buffalo Bills.

Biggest misevaluation: A 6-foot-1 cornerback sounds promising, but Antwain Walker would eventually change his commitment, and sign with Northern Illinois, his only other FBS offer. Based on on his offer list that included interest from Miami of Ohio, Walker did not fit the mold of what Illinois was looking for when spots tightened up in the class.

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Overall breakdown