A few weeks back Vegas released their “Game of the Year” lines for 26 college football games, and now they have released an even better betting opportunity in college football win totals for the 2020 season. Yes, this is based on them playing a full 12 game schedule this fall, but right now I am optimistic frankly because I am tired of being pessimistic, especially when it comes to our beloved college football.
For the Wisconsin Badgers, DraftKings set the total at 9.5 wins which isn’t all that surprising. A Badger team winning 9-10 games is pretty much what most of the fan base expects year in and year out. The 9.5 mark comes in higher than last year’s 8.5 set by Westgate, so it appears oddsmakers are a bit more confident in the team or the schedule than they were last season.
For me, I think 9.5 is spot on as we head toward the 2020 season. The Badgers have a tough schedule and on paper I expect more people to bet the under, but most years the Badgers end up exceeding expectations (please boot 2018 to the moon). That makes me gravitate toward the over at this point.
Right now, I see the Badgers losing one of their first first five games. Between an improved Indiana team, a tricky App State game, a road trip to Michigan, Notre Dame at Lambeau and Minnesota I see the Badgers dropping one, which isn’t the end of the world. If I had to pick one I’d venture it’s the Michigan game simply because it’s on the road and the home team tends to take the win in a Wisconsin/Michigan battle of late.
That gets you to 5-1 heading into the bye week which would be a realistic and ideal scenario. After the bye you have a road trip to Maryland which should be a win, and then Illinois at home. You know Wisconsin will be fired up for that one, so I chalk it up as a win. That puts you at 7-1 going into the final four.
For me, these back four give me some concern. Generally road trips to Northwestern and Purdue always make me nervous, but that heightens for me when you take on Northwestern at Wrigley Field and then head to West Lafayette. I’ve watched enough Wisconsin football to know that these two look like GIANT trap games for the Badgers. They tend to be focused for Nebraska and Iowa, but if I was betting I would say the Badgers drop one of these final four games.
Even if they do, that puts Wisconsin at 10-2 and probably winning a West Division title. What does that mean? Well, we head to Indianapolis to get our hearts broken by Ohio State once again. Didn’t I mention optimism earlier in this piece? What happened here?
Overall, if I am making a bet right now, I am taking the over. At +110 it’s pretty good odds and you’ll likely be going against the public which is always a welcome sign. The schedule looks tough on paper, but the Badgers tend to exceed those talking points most seasons so i’ll take my chances with the consistency and hope for the best.