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B5Q analytics: how many more games would Wisconsin have won if Ethan Happ were an average free throw shooter?

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B5Q does math AND investigates.

Purdue v Wisconsin Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Short answer? One...maybe three depending on how a couple of games against Indiana turned out in an additional overtime period. The one loss that turned into a win was against Iowa, which is exciting.

Ethan Happ free throws in every loss of his career

Season Game result FTM FTA Nat'l Avg % New FTM New FTA New game result
Season Game result FTM FTA Nat'l Avg % New FTM New FTA New game result
2016 L, 69-67, WIU 0 0 69.7 0 0 L, 69-67, WIU
2016 L, 71-61, G'town 6 6 69.7 6 6 L, 71-61, G'town
2016 L, 65-48, OU 1 2 69.7 1 2 L, 65-48, OU
2016 L, 68-67, UWM 4 5 69.7 5 5 L, 68-67, UWM
2016 L, 57-55, Marq 0 1 69.7 1 1 L, 57-56, Marq
2016 L, 61-55, Purdue 0 0 69.7 0 0 L, 61-55, Purdue
2016 L, 59-58, IU 0 1 69.7 1 1 T, 59-59 ???
2016 L, 63-60, Mary. 0 0 69.7 0 0 L, 63-60, Mary.
2016 L, 70-65, NU 4 6 69.7 4 6 L, 70-65, NU
2016 L, 69-57, MSU 4 5 69.7 4 5 L, 69-57, MSU
2016 L, 91-80, Purdue 4 7 69.7 5 7 L, 91-81, Purdue
2016 L, 70-58, Neb. 7 8 69.7 7 8 L, 70-58, Neb.
2016 L, 61-56, ND 2 2 69.7 2 2 L, 61-56, ND
2017 L, 79-67, Creigh. 1 1 70.1 1 1 L, 79-67, Creigh.
2017 L, 71-56, UNC 1 3 70.1 2 3 L, 71-57, UNC
2017 L, 66-55, Purdue 3 3 70.1 3 3 L, 66-55, Purdue
2017 L, 66-59, NU 3 6 70.1 4 6 L, 66-60, NU
2017 L, 64-58, Mich. 2 2 70.1 2 2 L, 64-58, Mich.
2017 L, 83-73, OSU 0 0 70.1 0 0 L, 83-73, OSU
2017 L, 84-74, MSU 0 3 70.1 2 3 L, 84-76, MSU
2017 L, 59-57, Iowa 1 7 70.1 5 7 W, 61-59, Wisc.
2017 L, 71-56, Mich. 2 2 70.1 2 2 L, 71-56, Mich.
2017 L, 84-83, Fla. 3 4 70.1 3 4 L, 84-83, Fla.
2018 L, 80-70, XU 7 10 71.3 7 10 L, 80-70, XU
2018 L, 70-65, Bay. 1 2 71.3 1 2 L, 70-65, Bay.
2018 L, 72-70, UCLA 3 4 71.3 3 4 L, 72-70, UCLA
2018 L, 49-37, UVa 2 2 71.3 2 2 L, 49-37, UVa
2018 L, 83-58, OSU 3 3 71.3 3 3 L, 83-58, OSU
2018 L, 59-55, Temp. 1 2 71.3 1 2 L, 59-55, Temp.
2018 L, 82-63, Marq. 1 3 71.3 2 3 L, 82-64, Marq.
2018 L, 64-60, Rutg. 2 5 71.3 4 5 L, 64-62, Rutg.
2018 L, 63-59, Neb. 1 6 71.3 4 6 L, 63-62, Neb.
2018 L, 78-50, Purdue 1 2 71.3 1 2 L, 78-50, Purdue
2018 L, 85-67, Iowa 5 5 71.3 5 5 L, 85-67, Iowa
2018 L, 76-61, MSU 9 11 71.3 9 11 L, 76-61, MSU
2018 L, 74-63, Neb. 8 19 71.3 14 19 L, 74-69, Neb.
2018 L, 60-52, NU 2 4 71.3 3 4 L, 60-53, NU
2018 L, 68-63, Mary. 4 6 71.3 4 6 L, 68-63, Mary.
2018 L, 83-72, Mich. 5 7 71.3 5 7 L, 83-72, Mich.
2018 L, 68-63, MSU 1 5 71.3 4 5 L, 68-66, MSU
2018 L, 63-60, MSU 2 4 71.3 3 4 L, 63-61, MSU
2019 L, 53-46, UVa 0 0 70.7 0 0 L, 53-46, UVa
2019 L, 74-69, Marq. 2 5 70.7 4 5 L, 74-71, Marq.
2019 L, 83-76, WKU 2 3 70.7 2 3 L, 83-76, WKU
2019 L, 59-52, Minn. 1 7 70.7 5 7 L, 59-56, Minn.
2019 L, 84-80, Purdue 3 6 70.7 4 6 L, 84-81, Purdue
2019 L, 64-60, Mary. 0 0 70.7 0 0 L, 64-60, Mary.
2019 L, 61-52, Mich. 0 1 70.7 1 1 L, 61-53, Mich.
2019 L, 67-59, MSU 0 6 70.7 4 6 L, 67-63, MSU
2019 L, 75-73, IU 5 10 70.7 7 10 T, 75-75, ???
2019 L, 67-55, MSU 0 1 70.7 1 1 L, 67-56, MSU
2019 L, 72-54, Oreg. 2 4 70.7 3 4 L, 72-55, Oregon

Ethan Happ actually shot free throws better in losses than he did for his career (55.8% in losses vs. 54.1% in his career). Obviously I did not take into account when these free throws were missed or under what context because I’m NOT about to go back through play-by-play data and then simulate in my head what would have happened afterwards.

Anyways, I guess the overarching point here is don’t make an offhand comment in the comment section about someone’s free throw shooting or else I’ll be forced to do more math. I hate doing math.