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Wisconsin basketball: previewing the Indiana Hoosiers

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A statistical breakdown of the Badgers next opponent.

NCAA Basketball: Indiana at Wisconsin Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

Way back at the beginning of December, the Indiana Hoosiers were 8-0 and getting ready to play their first conference game of the season against a 4-4 Wisconsin Badgers team that was losers of three straight. The Badgers came out and blew Indiana’s doors off by 20 points at the Kohl Center and now we get to watch the return game on the last weekend of the regular season.

Four Factors

KenPom’s Four Factors are eFG%, turnover%, offensive rebound% and FTA/FGA. These are good indicators of whether or not a team is, well, good. The numbers in parentheses are the national rank. (All stats as of Friday afternoon, Mar. 6)

Indiana Four Factors

4 Factors Offense Defense D1 Average
4 Factors Offense Defense D1 Average
eFG% 49.2 (190) 48.3 (120) 49.6
Turnover% 18.7 (161) 18 (231) 19
Off. Rebound% 32.9 (38) 24.9 (50) 28
FTA/FGA 40.2 (24) 33.2 (204) 32.6

Wisconsin Four Factors

4 Factors Offense Defense D1 Average
4 Factors Offense Defense D1 Average
eFG% 50.3 (140) 46.7 (59) 49.6
Turnover% 15.4 (13) 17.1 (284) 19
Off. Rebound% 24.3 (290) 25.8 (83) 28
FTA/FGA 27.1 (305) 25.3 (28) 32.6

Indiana, much like Wisconsin, is a team that hangs its hat on defense. While they don’t force many turnovers, like Wisconsin, they don’t foul and they don’t give up offensive rebounds...also like Wisconsin. Hmmmmmm. Weird.

UNLIKE WISCONSIN, they block a fair amount of shots and give up way more three point attempts, so one would expect the Badgers to be bombing away on Saturday. Indiana’s offense relies heavily on two-pointers and getting second chance points off of offensive rebounds. Because they are often below the basket taking shots, the Hoosiers also attempt a lot of free throws. The Badgers bigs, Nate Reuvers and Micah Potter, are going to have to be smart and try their best not to get into early foul trouble.

Adjusted efficiency numbers

KenPom

Offense: 108.7 (No. 60 in nation)
Defense: 93.0 (No. 32 in nation)
D1 average: 102.2

T-Rank

Offense: 108.2 (No. 63 in nation)
Defense: 93.6 (No. 38 in nation)
D1 average: 102.1

The Hoosiers, for all their similarities to the Badgers are just kind of a...worse version of Wisconsin when you look at the adjusted efficiency numbers. Over their last 10 games, their AdjOE is ranked No. 103 by Torvik which really isn’t very good. IU will definitely get a boost from being at home and probably needing another Quad 1 win to secure an NCAA bid, but the numbers say this game should be extremely close.

Overall rankings

19-11 overall
9-10 B1G
3-2 in their last five games
15-3 in home games

KenPom: 36
T-Rank: 42
NET: 52

Indiana top players

Player ORtg Usage eFG% 3P% FT% PPG RPG APG Turnovers
Player ORtg Usage eFG% 3P% FT% PPG RPG APG Turnovers
Trayce Jackson-Davis, 6-foot-9, freshman 121.7 22 57.8 0 68.7 13.9 8.1 1.2 1.3
Devonte Green, 6-foot-3, senior 98.4 26.6 47 36.2 71.2 10.6 2.6 2.1 1.9
Rob Phinisee, 6-foot-1, sophomore 92.8 20.9 43.5 33.3 72.5 7.3 2.6 3.2 2
Justin Smith, 6-foot-7, junior 105 18.3 51.3 25 67.3 10.5 5.3 0.9 1.6

Indiana’s best player has turned out to be true freshman Trayce Jackson-Davis. The built-like-a-brick-shit-house big man can’t shoot, he has a Ben Simmons-esque zero attempts from beyond the arc this year, but he can do just about everything else well. He rebounds extremely well, he draws fouls extremely well, he protects the rim extremely well and he doesn’t turn the ball over much. He shoots a decent percentage from the charity stripe so perhaps he’ll develop a three-pointer later, but it’s strange that he hasn’t even attempted one.

Devonte Green and Aljami Durham are the two players you need to look out for from beyond the arc. Durham is also capable of getting to the free throw line at a rate just below Jackson-Davis. As far as rebounding goes, 6-foot-7 Justin Smith and 6-foot-11 Joey Brunk join Jackson-Davis in crashing the glass. Brunk in particular grabs just over 10% of the offensive rebounds available when he’s on the floor.

Rob Phinisee is good at distributing the ball to, well, to both teams. He has a great assist rate and a great turnover rate (if you are the opposing team).

Indiana Twitter accounts to follow

@crimsonquarry: The SB Nation Indiana account
@assemblycall: IU hoops podcast
@kicksewly: Built like a steakhouse but handles like a bistro
@ChrisSchutte3: Beer drinker, basketball tweeter