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Tyler’s Take Five: Championship Weekend Betting Preview

Where are the best bets for the final weekend of the regular season?

NCAA Football: Clemson at Notre Dame Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

This college football season has been unlike any other and it has been a grind on the betting front this year with little traction most of the way. On the 2020 season I am 57-57 (-2.4 units). It’s just been that type of year.

Anytime I’ve gotten ahead a bad weekend has pulled me back, and vice versa. Now we enter championship weekend and then bowl season. Let’s see if we can finish strong to make it four straight years of finishing in the green for the college football season.

NCAA Football: Pac-12 Conference Championship-Oregon vs Utah Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon (+3) vs. USC

The PAC 12 might be able to salvage their season a bit by having an undefeated team in their conference get to a New Year Six Bowl. If they win said bowl they’d be a great spot to finally feel like they are back in the conversation nationally with their top program in USC..... soooo what does that mean? Well knowing the PAC 12 it means they’re likely going to lay an egg in the spotlight and become the laughing stock once again.

I mean seriously, the Big Ten has been a joke this Fall, but the PAC 12 might have been worse. Cancelations left and right, poor rescheduling, and now their conference championship game is forced to sub in Oregon in for Washington. The Ducks have no right to be here, but here they are. Wouldn’t it be funny if they came out and spoiled USC’s fun here? I don’t have any numbers to really like in this game but look at just last year with Utah. They laid an egg against Oregon and blew the conference’s chances. I think the same could happen here so give me the Ducks to cause some havoc Friday night.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: DEC 01 Big Ten Championship Game - Northwestern v Ohio State Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Northwestern vs. Ohio State (-21)

Do I really need to explain myself here? Lay the points.

Ok, but seriously this game does not project well for the Wildcats. Why? Well because they just aren’t, well, that good in my eyes. Yes they have a pretty good defensive unit and they’ve got a quarterback that can make some plays but can either of those things make enough plays against a team like Ohio State? I don’t think so. I just don’t feel like Northwestern has the offensive explosiveness to match Ohio State in a contest like this on the track that is built for the Buckeyes speed.

My one concern in this game is the pressure Ohio State is facing to not only win this game but win it big. If they press I think they could allow Northwestern to hang around but I think at the end of the day they’ll settle in. There are some COVID rumors with OSU at wideout, but I still think the backups of the Buckeyes are play makers that can get the job done. If you can get this under 21 great as I think that could be the margin but I’ll hope for more here.

Clemson v Notre Dame Photo by Matt Cashore-Pool/Getty Images

Notre Dame (+10.5) vs. Clemson

I told myself I would lay points with Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State the rest of the way but mannnn I think I’ve talked myself out of it here. 10.5 points?! That feels like a disrespectful amount in my eyes especially after Notre Dame beat this team once already. I know Trevor Lawrence did not play in that game but was his presence that badly missed? No, not really.

In the first meeting between these two Lawrence did not play but backup DJ Uiagalelei still threw for 439 yards through the air. What more could Trevor Lawrence do that Uiagalelei didn’t already do the first time around? He played a clean game and played pretty well overall. Lawrence is a better play but man this line feels like you’re paying a tax for Trevor Lawrence. I think Clemson wins this game but I would feel really good about 10 and a hook gave the circumstances of this one and the fact that Notre Dame is pretty solid.

NCAA Football: Iowa State at Oklahoma Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Quick hitters?

Oklahoma vs. Iowa State (+5.5): I think 5.5 is too many points. Spencer Rattler has improved but he’s still made mistakes in the big contests. None bigger than this, I like ISU here.

Florida vs. Alabama (-17): Don’t love it but Alabama feels like the right side. If the first half spread gets under 10 I may look to that instead.

Air Force @ Army, under 38: If you didn’t play it in Army-Navy last week you’ve got another shot here. I will live on this hill until it kills me.

Ole Miss @ LSU, under 78: 78 points means you need a score in almost every possession. I don’t think the LSU offense is built for that just yet.