Last week the Wisconsin Badgers played their third version of the same damn football game and lost to Iowa 28-7. My hunch was correct on the under, but I was a little overconfident on my spread bet. However, I was expecting Kendric Pryor and Jalen Berger to play so there’s another good example of why you should wait until just before kickoff to place bets if you can. Be sure to check out Sports Betting Dime for the latest game odds and see where these numbers fall Saturday afternoon.
This week the Badgers will host Minnesota with Paul Bunyan’s Axe on the line. Both teams have had up and down years but you can still throw out the record books when these two teams meet. The spread for this game opened with Wisconsin as a 11.5 point favorites but has recently crept up to 12 in favor of UW. The total for this contest opened at 47.5 and has held there thus far. We’ll dive into both of these numbers, but first, some notable trends.
- The total has gone over in 16 of the last 20 matchups between Wisconsin and Minnesota
- Minnesota is 5-6-1 ATS as road underdogs under P.J. Fleck
- Wisconsin is 15-19-1 ATS as a home favorite under Paul Chryst
ATS Pick: Minnesota (+12)
Overall there are not a lot of notable trends for this matchup. However, when you look at Fleck the trends that work in his favor are not existent in this game. His top profit trends are in bowl games (2-0), non-conference games (7-3-1), rest advantage (6-3-1), and after a bye (5-3). That bodes well for Wisconsin but what doesn’t bode well is that this team, frankly, kinda stinks right now. They’ve struggled to score the football and when that is the case it is really hard to find a way to feel comfortable laying points with them.
In their last two games, Wisconsin has scored just 13 points and now you’re telling me they have to beat a team by nearly that many points to cover? Noooo way am I putting my hard-earned money there. I cannot stand Minnesota and I’ll love the Badgers till the day I die but money is money. I work to earn it and I don’t like to burn it.
Laying 12 points with a team that is struggling to score just isn’t something I feel good with. Add in that Jalen Berger is not going to play and it causes more concern. Minnesota has a god awful run defense, but the Badgers run game is not what it usually is. I love you boys but I have to take Minnesota to cover here. Just win by 10 and it will be the best of both worlds.
Over/under? Under 47.5
Again, we’ve seen Wisconsin play the same game three times in a row. The defense will show up and do its thing and the offense will probably struggle to score points. The last three contests have gone under with ease and I don’t see that changing here. Minnesota is susceptible to giving up big plays on the ground but the Wisconsin offense has not hit a big play in months. If the run offense isn’t working the pass offense will have to do the job and go against a Minnesota passing defense that ranks 34th in the nation. They have one weakness and it’s against the run. That is part of the reason why I like the under as well as I think Wisconsin, despite the recent struggles, will try to go back to a more ground-heavy approach against a weaker front.