Last week was a pretty ugly contest for the Badgers but if you followed the betting column you at least came away from that putrid contest with money in your pocket. Indiana came in as a 14 point underdog in that game and covered easily, and the under cashed with nearly no sweat in the contest.
Now the Badgers head to Kinnick Stadium where the game opened with Wisconsin a three-point underdog but moved quickly to Wisconsin as a slight one-point favorite. The total in this contest opened at 43.5 but has moved down to 42 at the time of writing this. For the latest odds on this contest, and all others, visit Sports Betting Dime to see where the game odds may be. We’ll dive into both of these numbers but first, some notable trends.
- Wisconsin is 15-6 ATS as a road favorite under Paul Chryst
- Wisconsin is 18-9 ATS as the road team under Paul Chryst
- Wisconsin is 5-5 ATS in their last ten meetings with Iowa
- Iowa is 11-6-1 ATS as a home underdog under Kirk Ferentz (data only goes to 2003)
- Iowa is 46-47-1 ATS as a home favorite under Kirk Ferentz
ATS Pick: Wisconsin (PK)
Iowa comes into this game on fire winning five in a row after starting the season 0-2. The defense is playing well, the offense just showed some more life and now they’ve got a struggling Wisconsin coming to town on Senior Day. What better way to send your seniors off than by beating a team they’ve NEVER beaten before...
Not so fast my friend. Yes, Iowa comes in playing some really good football but I think this Wisconsin defense is going to give them problems. One of their two losses this season came to the Northwestern Wildcats, a team that has almost as good a defense as the Badgers do. I think Wisconsin completely shuts down the Iowa run game with the likes of Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal, similar to the way Northwestern did. If Jim Leonhard does that and makes quarterback Spencer Petras beat them I like their chances. I don’t really see Petras doing that.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Badgers have struggled, but this is a familiar opponent. You know what Ferentz Ball is, and the Badgers should be better prepared here. In a situation that SCREAMS Iowa, I really like the Badgers to cause some mayhem and sadness in Kinnick. Wouldn’t that be nice?
Over/Under? Under 42
This one is easy for me. If you’re going to play the total there is literally no statistical data that says play an over and feel good about it. Wisconsin has mustered up 13 points in their last two games so for me betting an over is asking for trouble.
The total has gone over in each of the last three meetings between these two teams, but these are very different squads. Wisconsin had Jonathan Taylor in those contests and Iowa had Nate Stanley who, despite never beating Wisconsin, could score some points. For me trying to find 42 points between this Badger offense and Spencer Petras against this Badgers defense seems hard to do.
I see this being a 20-17 type game, so I feel much more comfortable with the under in this matchup. One thing to watch will be special teams, Wisconsin played poorly in that department last week and Iowa is fairly strong there. A mishap touchdown like that could push this total over but right now I still like the under more.