Week 9 has came and went and it was another solid week on the betting front. The column went 2-1 and the quick hitters went 4-1, so there was no reason why you didn’t make a profit last Saturday. I played all six and went home happy with a 6-2 week. Now the calendar turns to Week 10 and folks we have a STRONG slate on our hands. Florida/Georgia, Clemson/Notre Dame, Northwestern/Nebrask.... oh, what? No not them? Fair enough. Regardless, it’s a strong weekend and that means more opportunity to make some cash. Let’s get right into it.
Michigan State (+7) @ Iowa; Under 46
Last week I took the under in Northwestern/Iowa and bet Northwestern on the moneyline as well. Both cashed, and it looks like a similar situation could be brewing this week at Kinnick. For the game itself I like the Spartans to keep it within the number here. I thought MSU would be pretty down in 2020, but Mel Tucker seems to have show a little bit of fight with his guys. If they can hang onto the football like they did last week the Spartans are a much better football team and I think can hang around in this matchup. Additionally, 16 MPH winds are expected at Kinnick so both teams will look to keep this on the ground and make it ugly. 46 is LOWWW but I still like it here.
The other thing to consider here is that I think Iowa football is in serious peril here. They’re 0-2, Kirk Ferentz is under fire and probably in his final season, players are transferring out left and right, and the star wideout was just suspended for an OWI arrest. Things do not look pretty in Iowa City folks. Due to that, they’re kind of a fade on sight team so I will take Sparty and the points, look to the under, and possibly sprinkle the moneyline here as well because the Hawkeyes might be checked out.
Florida (+3.5) vs. Georgia
This matchup possesses some serious strength on strength as the Florida offense squares off against the Dawgs defense. Both units rank top 20 in total offense/defense, and it should be an incredible sight to see at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. For me, I look to the Alabama/Georgia game from earlier this season. It was a similar strength on strength, and the Dawgs just could not keep pace on offense. I think we’ll see a similar output Saturday afternoon.
The concern is of course the Florida defense, but they looked solid last week against a Mizzou offense that can score, so they should be able to improve on their mark against a UGA offense that has struggled at times with Stetson Bennett IV at QB. I just don’t think he’s the guy, and the line at 3.5 is a great spot for Florida. Give me the Gators in this one, and I may look to sprinkle on the moneyline as well. One thing to monitor is the weather, as the forecast did not look ideal early in the week.
Clemson @ Notre Dame: Under 50.5
Headlining the night is a top five showdown between Notre Dame and Clemson. However, the intrigue builds as the Tigers are without Trevor Lawrence. Five star steps in to man the Clemson offense and help keep the Tigers on track. While I don’t have a clear read on the side (lean ND) I do think the total is intriguing here.
Clemson is battling a lot of defensive injuries, so I expect them to try and lean on the ground game of QB D.J. Uiagalelei and tailback Travis Etienne in hopes to take the air out of the ball and slow the game down a bit. On the other side Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly has been adamant that he’ll rely on his offensive line to try and take control of the football game. To me, that sounds like a lot of running. Pair that with two solid defenses albeit a little banged up and I think you have a recipe for this to go under the total in a primetime matchup.
BYU @ Boise State (+4): Broncos are rarely home dogs, and I think the magic wares off here for BYU Friday evening.
Nebraska (+3.5) @ Northwestern: Not sure why, I have nothing to back it up, but I like Nebraska here ???
Arizona State @ USC, 1st half under 28: This game starts at 9 AM local time.... you try playing football at 9 AM local time. No thanks. I will look to the first half under here.