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Tyler’s Take Five: Week 12 College Football Betting Preview

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After a punt of a week let’s look to turn a profit in week 12.

NCAA Football: Ohio State at Indiana Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Last week the Northwestern Wildcats came through for me and the under cashed as well which allowed me to walk to a 2-2 week in the column. Boston College ended up being the trendy underdog that didn’t quite have enough, and Michigan State burned me once again. I promise I’m done with them (because they cant play this week).

Week 12 has had some games taken away, 14 at the time of writing this, but there is still plenty of good action to get on this week.

NCAA Football: Mississippi State at Alabama The Tuscaloosa News-USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky @ Alabama (-15 1H, -30)

The Crimson Tide have had an extra week to prep for this game, so that should bode well for them in this matchup. I think the Tide will come out and score at will, and I don’t think the Wildcats have any way to keep pace. In their last three contests Kentucky is averaging just 17 points per game, but that gets even worse when you account for the fact that 38 of those points came against Vandy last week. Take that game out and they are averaging 6.5 points per game in the other two contests. If you struggle to score against teams like Mizzou, Bama is not going to be any easier.

The Tide have been a great team covering in the first half of games in recent years so I like that play, and I think I’ll be on the full spread here as well. Kentucky just has no offense to hang around and their defense gave up 35 to Vanderbilt last time out. The Tide will be able to name their number in this one if they want to, and I expect Nick Saban to keep the foot on the gas to get his guys back in rhythm after losing a chance to play last week. Roll damn Tide big here.

NCAA Football: Central Florida at Cincinnati Bob Meyer-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati @ UCF (+6)

In a big AAC battle the undefeated Bearcats will have to travel to Orlando to take on the Golden Knights. This game will pit the nation’s top offense in UCF against Cincy’s No. 9 ranked defense. It will be strength on strength, and so far this season we’ve seen the offenses tend to win these matchups.

I think back to Alabama and Florida versus a team like Georgia. The Dawgs had the defense, but in the end they just couldn’t keep pace with the opponent. This Knight’s defense isn’t anywhere close to those other two teams, but offensively they are right up there. If you look at UCF’s schedule you saw them take on a similar defense in Tulsa early in the year and put up 455 yards. They lost the game, but they shot themselves in the foot three times with turnovers in good field position. I think this number is just a bit too big here, so give me the Knights plus the points and a little dash on the moneyline just in case.

NCAA Football: Rutgers at Ohio State Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Indiana @ Ohio State (-10.5 1H, -20.5)

We’ve got a top-ten Big Ten matchup this weekend as the Indiana Hooisers head to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. The Hooisers come in 4-0 and riding high and now have their shot at the champ. Unfortunately for them, I think they’re walking right into the danger zone in this one. I’ve been high on Indiana all year long, but I think the magic runs out and a reality check comes into play.

Indiana is 4-0 on the season but the luck that they’ve had has been pretty incredible. The Hoosiers have benefited from a lot of turnovers and short fields so far. In fact, they’ve forced 12 turnovers and are scoring 37% of their points off of those turnovers. That is an incredible mark considering the national average is just 17% around the rest of the country.

That means that a regression is likely coming there, and I think Ohio State is the team where these things tend to die. Justin Fields has hardly thrown any incompletions, let alone turned the ball over. I like the Buckeyes to cover this number, but I could see a backdoor scenario here late so I am going to play the first half as well just in case.

NCAA Football: Sun Belt Conference Championship-UL Lafayette at Appalachian State Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Quick Hitters?

App State (+4.5) @ Coastal Carolina: App State QB Zac Thomas is banged up so waiting to see if he will in fact play. I believe he will and I think the Chants run ends here.

SJSU @ Fresno State (+2.5): Spartans have been a cool story thus far, but they’ve beaten the bottom feeders of the MWC. I like Fresno as a slight home dog here.

Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma, over 59: Tylan Wallace and Chuba Hubbard look like they’re going to play so give me the over here.

Washington State (+1.5) @ Stanford: Stanford is 0-2 and looked terrible along the way to this point. Wrong team favored. Smells fishy, but I like Wazzu here.