There are weeks when you are hot and things are going well and there are weeks like last week where you were just plain way off. It happens. Betting in general, but especially on college football in 2020, is not easy. Rather than make excuses I’ll just say I was off a week ago and paid for it. I put together a nice 1-5 week so it’s safe to say things could have gone better. As Andy Bernard would say, I WANTED IT TO GO BETTER! Anyway, we’re onto Week 11. Hopefully there will be enough games remaining for you to make a profit.
Northwestern (-2.5) @ Purdue; Under 50
Two weeks ago I hopped on Northwestern as a short favorite at Iowa and took the under in that contest as well. Doing the same here in this Big Ten West battle. Yes, both teams come into this contest undefeated but the Wildcats have looked like a better team thus far. Northwestern thumped an improving Maryland team, beat an ok Iowa team, and took down Nebraska which count’s for at least a little something. Purdue on the other hand beat Iowa and then barely squeaked by an Illinois team on their fourth string quarterback. I rest my case.
Really though, I think Northwestern is a better team and I think their defense will travel. The Wildcats are always a team that plays well on the road as head coach Pat Fitzgerald is 51-33-1 ATS away from home. I like them in this spot to rely on their defense and run game to take hold of this game.
Additionally, and the reason why I like the under, is that wind is projected to be 16-20 MPH for this contest. Purdue likes to throw it and throwing in that kind of wind will be tough. The Wildcats can keep it on the ground and rely on their defense. Gimme the Cats and the under here.
Indiana @ Michigan State (+7)
In 2019, Michigan State was a team that I couldn’t seem to stay away from week in and week out. I probably bet with or against the Spartans in eight of their 12 contests and it didn’t always go well but I kept going back to the well anyway. This year I’ve bet with or against them in three straight weeks, and guess what? Here I am again.
On the flip side I have been really high on this Indiana team from the jump, so this one has a lot of intrigue for me. They’ve come through and knocked off two blue bloods in Penn State and Michigan, handled their business against Rutgers and now sit in the drivers seat as the East’s contender vs. Ohio State.
BUT because of that, I like the Spartans to hang around here. It’s a purely situational spot. Indiana is coming off a huge win against Michigan at home and they’ve got Ohio State on deck. All they have to do is get through an 11 a.m. road trip to Michigan State.....To me they could be looking ahead a bit and come out sleepy here. I don’t think IU will lose, but I do believe this one could get mucked up and the Spartans hang around. If you can find a 7.5 I think you’d be in really great shape.
Notre Dame @ Boston College (+14)
Speaking of situational spots, I really like the spot where Boston College catches the Irish this week. Notre Dame is coming off one of the biggest wins in school history after knocking off No.1 Clemson. You know they we’re really looking forward to that contest to earn their keep in the ACC and they did it. They knocked off the giant, stormed the field, and moved up to the nation’s number two spot.
After a win like that the last thing I would want to do is have to go play a scrappy team like Boston College. They aren’t the best team in the nation, but they aren’t near the worst. The Eagles are just one of those averaged teams that find a way to play to their competition. In 2020 BC has struggled with Texas State and Syracuse but also played close with North Carolina and Clemson. They show up and play tight games, so I think this could be a spot where they thrive on the situation.
Additionally, this is Boston Colleges “Red Bandana” game where they celebrate the life of Welles Crowther, a BC alum who lost his life helping rescue people on 9/11. It’s a very big moment for BC every year, and they’ll be fired up to represent that again against the nation’s number two team. It seems to me that Notre Dame might be stepping into a huge trap here.
SMU (+3) @ Tulsa: Tulsa has a good defense and SMU has a good offense. In this games the offense has won out so give me the Mustangs here.
East Carolina (+28) @ Cincinnati: Holton Ahlers is a quarterback that can score enough to stay within this number or Cincy shuts them down and wins it 28 nothing. Just feels like a lot of points.
Wake Forest @ UNC (-13): Wake Forest has played some good defense but they haven’t faced an attack anywhere near this one. I like the Tar Heels to cover.
Cal (+4) @ Arizona State: GREAT nightcap. Bears defense is legit and should be a great test for Jayden Daniels. I like Cal to stay within the number here.
Baylor @ Texas Tech under 57: 22 MPH winds, check please!