It’s safe to say that this year has been a struggle. For everyone, and everything. The same could be said on the betting front as a lot of people have made more donations to Vegas than usual. However, things have started to take a turn as two weeks ago we pushed to a 10-9-1 mark and last week we had a nice 3-0 week to push the column to 13-9-1.
I added a few others from the quick hitters to put together a nice 6-1 weekend, but now we have to continue the march forward as we try to keep ourselves in the green.
Missouri @ Florida: Over 61
In Florida’s three contests this season the average score between the two teams has been a total of 75 points aka, a lot of scoring. The Gators haven’t played in weeks, so there is certainly a possibility for rust offensively, but I am hoping more so for rust defensively.
In case you haven’t watched Florida all year, their defense is atrocious. They’ve struggled to get any stops, and it’s mostly been due to poor tackling. Now, I don’t know about you, but I think taking three weeks off of contact and practice probably isn’t going to make you any better at tackling. Just my opinion.
Add in Missouri who runs a system that can score and you’ve got a recipe for points. If Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts are in, the Gator offense will be fine, so I am all in for my second over play of the season.
Purdue @ Illinois: Under 58.5
There isn’t a lot I love on sides this weekend, but FOLKS, we’ve got some weather in play for some unders. My card will be loaded up with them with plenty of big wind games on the slate. My favorite of the group is in Champaign with a total near 60 in this contest.
Right now the forecast calls for 16 MPH winds, and it looks like it could be even higher as the day goes on. Given what we saw from Illinois offense a week ago I find it hard to believe that Brandon Peters is going to be throwing it all over the field in these conditions. On the other sideline Purdue will certainly still try and throw, but that could get them in the same sort of trouble.
The Boilermakers do get head coach Jeff Brohm back, but it appears that they’ll be without star WR Rondale Moore once again. To me that’s a good recipe for an under in this spot.
Ohio State (-12) @ Penn State
Highlighting the weekend is a game that may have lost some luster due to Penn State’s result a week ago, but it still should be a game with large Big Ten East implications. A win for Ohio State puts them firmly into the driver’s seat, and loss for Penn State puts them out of it all together. Notice I didn’t say the flipside of those results...well that’s because I don’t see it happening.
Sure, this line is a little larger given Penn State’s loss to Indiana last week, and sure it’s fair to assume a lot of people will be on the Buckeyes because of that, but I am not overthinking this game. Last year Penn State hung around, but a lot of that was due to a bad span of five minutes where the Buckeyes spotted Penn State 10 points.
This year, I don’t see those same mistakes and even if they do happen this Nittany Lions offense isn’t better than they we’re in 2019, while the Ohio State offense might be. I see this game staying close in the first half, but I don’t see Sean Clifford being able to keep pace for a full four quarters. Sure it’s at Happy Valley, but that luster is gone with no fans. Ohio State pulls away and covers down the stretch.
Iowa State @ Kansas, under 52: 20 MPH crosswinds, yes please
Northwestern @ Iowa, under 47.5: 21 MPH winds at Kinnick, add it on baby also like the Cats here
UCF @ Houston, under 82: Seriously? 82? Just disgusting football. As a Big Ten fan you have to bet this under on principle
Michigan State (+24) @ Michigan: Is Michigan State that bad? Maybe. Probably a stay away for me but Michigan State feels like the right side
Indiana (-11) @ Rutgers: Indiana played pretty badly and beat a top ten team, Rutgers was gifted seven turnovers (Editor’s note: nine if you count turnovers on downs!) and still let MSU hang around, I like the Hooisers again here