Tyler’s Take Five: Week 5 college football betting preview

Week 5 is here! The calendar turned to October, so hopefully someone woke up Billie Joe Armstrong. Ba dum tss. Anyways, it’s onto a fresh week. Last week the column went 1-1-1 so we essentially kicked the can down the road to Week 5. Not the best week, but not the worst. That moves the official column to 6-3-1 on the season so still plenty of opportunity to keep this thing chugging along in the right direction. It’s another nice slate this week, so lets take a look at some chances to make a little money here.

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TCU @ Texas (-11.5)

Last week the Longhorns barely escaped with a win against Texas Tech, needing a score, onside kick, score plus a two point conversion just to push it to overtime. Somehow they did it, but things didn’t look pretty for Texas. That has a lot of people hopping off the train, which seems like an overreaction. Overreactions are a big thing in college football betting and early in the season when a team doesn’t play their best game bettors are quick to fade the team the following week. I saw that with Oklahoma State last week and the Cowboys came out and covered. I am applying that same logic here with the Longhorns.

Sure, Texas didn’t look good but that doesn’t define their team. They’ve got a lot of offensive weapons and just need to find some defensive stops. Looking at TCU the roster is still pretty raw with only seven starters returning, and they lost a ton of their talented pieces from a year ago. Wide receiver Jalen Reagor is onto the NFL (Editor’s note: go Birds!), and the Horned Frogs also lost their top tackle and top two corners. They recruit well, but I still think Texas can come out and score. If the Longhorn defense shows up even a little bit I think they can cover this number here.

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Navy @ Air Force: Under 46

If you’ve ever read my betting pieces before you know that when service academies meet it’s an auto under bet for me, and many others. In fact, service academy unders are one of my favorite plays of the season. Why you ask? Well, its a betting trend that has been highly profitable for years. Since 2005 games involving a head to head matchup of service academies have gone under 35 of the last 45 meetings according to the Action Network. That’s almost 80% of the time, which is absurd, but it continues to cash despite oddsmakers lowering and lowering the number.

This trend continues for a host of reasons, but mainly because these two teams run the triple option and the clock bleeds down. Additionally, they practice against the triple option often so they’re much more prepared to face it when they square off which results in this trend continuing to be profitable. Too often bettors look at teams, when really a lot of it is a numbers game. At 46, you’re still above they key number of 45, which is the third most common score total over the last five seasons. It’s a great number, and a great spot so hop on it fast if you like it.

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Memphis @ SMU: Under 75

Two of the top teams in the AAC are squaring off in a key game for the conference title, and points are expected to be aplenty in this one. For me though, it seems like a lot of points for two teams that have had somewhat odd starts to the season. Firstly, for Memphis, they started the season on a high note with their win in Week 0 over Arkansas State. However, they haven’t taken the field since. That’s almost a month off, which is unheard off in college football and something that I have to believe will cause consistency issues.

On the other hand SMU has played three games and are averaging nearly 50 points per game. If the Mustangs can put up 50, can’t Memphis do the rest and cash this over? Possibly, but the opponents for SMU have not been the cream of the crop. They’ve taken down Texas State, North Texas, and FCS Stephen F. Austin in their three contests.

Not exactly a murderer’s row.

This week they’ll face a defense that was No. 20 in pass defense a season ago, and returns two starting corners. I think points will be scored, but not quite at that rate.

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Quick hitters?

Baylor (-3) @ West Virginia: Kinda like Baylor here. Just not a big believer in West Virginia and Neal Brown right now. Not sure the Mountaineers can keep pace with Baylor’s offense.

Texas Tech (+3) @ Kansas State: Feels like a big let down spot for Kansas State and Texas Tech has to have a sour taste in their mouth after blowing that game to Texas. Might be a perfect storm. Probably adding the Red Raiders to my card at +3.

Oklahoma State (-22) @ Kansas: Just fade Kansas. They’re so so bad.

Texas A&M (+18) @ Alabama: A&M feels like the play catching 18 scores but I don’t know if I am brave enough to step in front of Bama. Always a risk betting against the Tide. Like it but not enough to probably fire on.

Ole Miss (+6) @ Kentucky: Ole Miss can score and as long as Kentucky sticks with Terry Wilson they are a risky bet. He was all sorts of awful last week. Rebels +6 looks appetizing.

Auburn @ Georgia, Under 45: Georgia’s QB play is horrendous and JT Daniels likely is not ready to play. Auburn’s offense looks like a lot of Bo Nix improv which wont work against the UGA front. Don’t love a side but total is a good spot to play at 45.