Tyler’s Take Five: Week 7 college football betting preview

Unfortunately for us there have been winless weeks to go along with the undefeated weeks and the former happened last weekend as my betting picks went 0-3, and I went 2-5 overall on the Saturday slate. Thankfully I went 4-0 on NFL Sunday so maybe you should follow me on the Action Network so you can fade me on Saturdays and follow on Sundays?

Anyway, it’s been a rough 2020 season on the college football betting front for me so far but how do shooters get hot? Well, my friend, they keep shooting. There’s plenty on the board for Week 7, so let’s get right into it.

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Pitt (+14) @ Miami

Last week the Hurricanes came into Saturday with a lot of hype heading into Death Valley to take on the Clemson Tigers in primetime. Many believed they were up for the challenge and many were wrong as the Hurricanes were beaten to a pulp by Dabo and Co. Now they have to turn around and take on a Pitt team at 11 AM.

To me, that seems like a tall task. Pitt is a team that has played well on defense and if you’ve read my posts before you know that I really like this Panthers unit. On top of that, I think Clemson really showed the recipe for how to handle D’Eriq King and slow him down. Pitt’s defense should have a good game plan, and the spot to me looks like a classic Miami letdown here. I don’t know if Pitt will win the game with their offensive struggles, but I think they do enough to keep it in the number here.

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Louisville @ Notre Dame (-16.5)

Louisville came into 2020 as a trendy team for a lot of people, but they’ve been a big disappointment thus far. Things didn’t look good when D’Eriq King ran all over them for Miami, but they were compounded even further when you give up 46 points to Georgia Tech, a team still transitioning away from the triple option. Now they face the task of taking on Notre Dame, who have a distinct edge over the Cardinals in a few areas.

First, Notre Dame has been good in their front seven. They currently rank No. 9 in tackles for loss, and No. 2 in defensive third down conversion percentage. What that means is that they’ve been in the opponents backfield a lot and they’ve ended drives quickly. That spells trouble for the Louisville offense as the Cardinals have allowed 40 tackles for loss, which is fourth worst in the nation. Additionally, they’ve turned the ball over nine times via fumbles, which is also one of the worst marks in the country. In layman’s terms, the Notre Dame defense creates a lot of trouble and Louisville easily falls into trouble whether it be the opponent’s or their own doing. I’d lay the big points here with the Irish.

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Georgia @ Alabama: Alabama (-4); Over 57

This game is the game of the year thus far, but that really isn’t saying much since the Big Ten hasn’t kicked off yet. Anyway, it’s a big one as two playoff hopefuls battle it out for SEC supremacy and the upper hand in the college football playoff race. It’s such a big game, it wouldn’t be right if I didn’t have some money on it as that’s what you all want, right?

Right now, I think there is a chance that people out there are going to overthink this one due to the COVID news surrounding Nick Saban. While Saban is a great coach, he’s still not the one making the plays and he’s still around to help with the game prep. That is the area he excels in, and his guys just have to execute. This line came down from 6 to 3.5 when the news hit, and I think it really favors the Tide here.

The Georgia defense has been great and is looking like one of the best teams in the country, but I have my doubts that they’ll lock down this Alabama team. They’re second in the nation in total offense, so maybe Georgia gets some stops, but I don’t see them holding them down entirely. Additionally, Stetson Bennett has been a good player for Georgia but he hasn’t been that great. He’s completing 63% of his passes, and he hasn’t turned the ball over, but is that enough to keep pace with Alabama? I don’t think so. I like laying with the Tide and the over as well.

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Quick hitters?

Texas State (+3) @ South Alabama: No reason the Bobcats should be a dog here. A lot better than what their 1-3 record shows.

Kansas @ West Virginia (-22): Gotta fade Kansas until the prove they can cover a spread.

Clemson (-27) @ Georgia Tech: Kinda like the Tigers here. Georgia Tech has been better but the Tiger defense seemed to figure something out. Big number though, we’ll see.

Kentucky (+6) @ Tennessee: Kentucky is physical and Tennessee didn’t like being pushed around last week. I like the Wildcats here but Terry Wilson is always a concern.

Virginia @ Wake Forest (+2): Did you see Virginia’s QB last week? Yeah, gimme Wake.

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State, over 54: Mike Leach’s squad scored two (2) points last week...but A&M gave up 402 yards. Total seems low here.

Boston College (+12) @ Virginia Tech: Va. Tech has no right to be a double digit favorite after that performance last week. COVID has hurt them bad, but still, that was absurd.