For one final time we’ve got a Wisconsin football game to bet on this season and it’s a pretty special one. The Badgers will take on the Oregon Ducks in the 106th iteration of the Rose Bowl game. It will be the Badgers first trip back to Pasadena since the back to back to back days of 2011, 2012, and 2013.
Last time out the Badgers covered against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game which was a silver lining to another heartbreaking loss. Unfortunately the over, which appeared to be well in hand, came to a halt when the Badgers were unable to score in the second half. That loss puts the betting preview column at 17-9 on the season, which means we’re already in the green for the season!
Despite that, we don’t rest on our winnings. We take those winnings and try to win more in this year’s Rose Bowl match up. Wisconsin opened as a 2.5 point favorite in this game but the spread has now moved to three points due to Wisconsin getting heavy money over the last few days. The total for this game opened at 51.5 and has remained there throughout the days leading up to kickoff. We’ll dive into both numbers, but before that let’s take a look at some notable trends for this match up.
- Oregon is 7-6 ATS on the season
- Wisconsin is 8-5 ATS on the season
- The total has gone under in six of Wisconsin’s last nine bowl games
- The favorite has covered in six of the last ten Rose Bowls
- The over has hit in seven of the last ten Rose Bowls
ATS Pick: Wisconsin (-2.5)
I was able to get a 2.5 before the spread moved to three, and I would try and shop around as much as you can to find a 2.5 out there. Overall, I think this game is going to be a close one that goes back and forth over the course of the game. However, I think Wisconsin will have the edge late in the game as they punish with their run heavy offense and attempt to ware down this Oregon defense.
The Ducks are a very solid defense statistically, but I don’t believe they’ve faced a rushing attack quite like this. If the Badgers are able to run the ball well and ware down Oregon, it should open up some other passing opportunities for Jack Coan and company to make plays against an Oregon pass defense which is the weakest phase of their defensive unit. Wisconsin has won their last four bowl games and I believe they get over the hump of three straight losses in Pasadena and bring home a Rose Bowl win.
Over/Under? Over 51.5
There aren’t a lot of edges to find in the spread, but I really like the over in this match up. I think this game will start out a little slow with each team feeling each other out to start, but once they are able to figure out how to attack each defense I could see an array of points coming. It won’t quite be the track meet that Wisconsin and Oregon put on in 2012, but I do believe we’ll have some big plays on both sides to push the score in the second half.
Additionally, similar to Lucas Oil Stadium, the Rose Bowl is prone to big points. Seven of the last ten Rose Bowls have gone over and I think we’ll be in for the same situation here despite the fact that two of the unders were in Wisconsin’s match ups against TCU and Stanford. Those Rose Bowl teams didn’t have as much offensive firepower as this one, so I think points will be much easier to find this time around. On the other side, the Oregon passing attack should be able to hit on some big plays in both phases, so I think the over is a very solid play here.