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Well, the Super Bowl has come and gone, and the Big Ten season is about halfway over. And my kids are home from school because of a blizzard. That means it's time to run some simulations to take a look at who's got the inside track at hanging a banner.
Here are the current odds, based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using both the T-Rank and the Kenpom ratings:
| Team | T-Rank | Kenpom | Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 93% | 94% | 93% |
| Ohio State | 14% | 8% | 11% |
| Maryland | 4% | 5% | 5% |
| Michigan State | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Indiana | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Purdue | 1% | 0% | 0% |
As you can see, the Badgers are overwhelmingly favored to get a share of the title.
Here's the same chart with chances for an outright title:
| Team | T-Rank | Kenpom | Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 81% | 84% | 82% |
| Ohio State | 5% | 2% | 4% |
| Maryland | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Michigan State | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Unsurprisingly, the Badgers are the only that currently has a significant chance of ending up the sole champ. Even if the Badgers completely collapse, it's pretty likely unlikely that just one of those five teams currently tied for second at 6-3 will separate from all the others.
So those are the base odds. But let's play god a little. What happens if we assume that the Badgers lose their two toughest remaining games, at Maryland and at Ohio State?
| Team | T-Rank | Kenpom | Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 74% | 79% | 77% |
| Ohio State | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Maryland | 17% | 21% | 19% |
| Michigan State | 6% | 8% | 7% |
| Indiana | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Purdue | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Iowa | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Even if we assume the Badgers lose those two games, they're still overwhelmingly favored win a share of the title. But at least with this experiment we can see that Ohio State and Maryland have a legitimate path to the title: beat Wisconsin, and hope that the Badgers pull another Rutgers somewhere along the way.