Well, the Super Bowl has come and gone, and the Big Ten season is about halfway over. And my kids are home from school because of a blizzard. That means it's time to run some simulations to take a look at who's got the inside track at hanging a banner.
Here are the current odds, based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using both the T-Rank and the Kenpom ratings:
As you can see, the Badgers are overwhelmingly favored to get a share of the title.
Here's the same chart with chances for an outright title:
Unsurprisingly, the Badgers are the only that currently has a significant chance of ending up the sole champ. Even if the Badgers completely collapse, it's pretty likely unlikely that just one of those five teams currently tied for second at 6-3 will separate from all the others.
So those are the base odds. But let's play god a little. What happens if we assume that the Badgers lose their two toughest remaining games, at Maryland and at Ohio State?
Even if we assume the Badgers lose those two games, they're still overwhelmingly favored win a share of the title. But at least with this experiment we can see that Ohio State and Maryland have a legitimate path to the title: beat Wisconsin, and hope that the Badgers pull another Rutgers somewhere along the way.