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After Tuesday night's results, Iowa's title hopes are basically eliminated, and the Badgers' slim hopes stay alive. Here's the updated breakdown, based as always on KenPom team ratings:
| WINS | UW | MSU | IOWA | OSU | MICH | NEB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 35% | 0% |
| 14 | 0% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 44% | 0% |
| 13 | 42% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 18% | 0% |
| 12 | 45% | 30% | 22% | 34% | 3% | 6% |
| 11 | 12% | 3% | 49% | 44% | 0% | 26% |
| 10 | 1% | 0% | 25% | 19% | 0% | 40% |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 25% |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| CHAMP | 8% | 22% | 0.34% | 0.32% | 94% | 0.02% |
| OUTRIGHT | 1% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 74% | 0% |
I threw in Nebraska, since the Huskers have a good shot at 10 wins and have a mathematical chance of winning a share of the title (though it would take a true miracle). Quite a season they are having.
Some other tidbits from the simulations:
-- The Badgers now have a 98-percent chance to finish in a tie for fourth or better, a 93-percent chance to finish in a tie for third or better and even a 53-percent chance to finish in a tie for second or better.
-- The Badgers have an 87 percent chance to get to at least 12 wins. That would be their fifth straight year with at least 12 Big Ten wins, the seventh time in eight years and the ninth time under Bo Ryan. Before he came along, the Badgers had won 12 conference games only twice, and not since ... 1914.