Minnesota vs. Wisconsin: Predictions, TV schedule, streaming, odds

Week 14 TV guide

Sat, Nov 29, 2014
12:00 PM ET SECN	(16) Georgia Tech	at	(9) Georgia
12:00 PM ET ESPN2	Kentucky	at	(22) Louisville
12:00 PM ET ESPNU	Illinois	at	Northwestern
12:00 PM ET ABC	Michigan	at	(6) Ohio State
12:00 PM ET FSN	North Texas	at	Texas-San Antonio
12:00 PM ET BTN	Purdue	at	Indiana
12:00 PM ET CBSS	Rice	at	Louisiana Tech
12:00 PM ET ESPN	South Carolina	at	(21) Clemson
12:00 PM ET FS1	West Virginia	at	Iowa State
12:00 PM ET ESPNN	Cincinnati	at	Temple
1:00 PM ET PAC12	(25) Utah	at	Colorado
12:30 PM ET ESPN3	NC State	at	North Carolina
12:30 PM ET ESPN3	Syracuse	at	Boston College
12:30 PM ET ESPN3	Louisiana-Lafayette	at	Troy
2:00 PM ET ESPN3	Texas State	at	Georgia State
2:00 PM ET ESPN3	Idaho	at	Appalachian State
2:00 PM ET ESPN3	New Mexico State	at	Arkansas State
3:30 PM ET FOX	Notre Dame	at	USC
3:30 PM ET ABC/ESPN2	(7) Baylor	vs. (Arlington)	Texas Tech
3:30 PM ET ESPN	Florida	at	(3) Florida State
3:30 PM ET ABC/ESPN2	(10) Michigan State	at	Penn State
3:30 PM ET BTN	(18) Minnesota	at	(14) Wisconsin
3:30 PM ET CBS	(4) Mississippi State	at	(19) Mississippi
3:30 PM ET ESPNU	Rutgers	at	Maryland
3:30 PM ET CBSS	San Jose State	at	San Diego State
4:00 PM ET FS1	Kansas	at	(12) Kansas State
4:00 PM ET SECN	Tennessee	at	Vanderbilt
4:00 PM ET ESPNN	Connecticut	at	Memphis
4:30 PM ET PAC12	BYU	at	Cal
6:00 PM ET ESPN3	Louisiana-Monroe	at	Georgia Southern
7:00 PM ET ESPNU	Wake Forest	at	Duke
7:00 PM ET ESPN2	Pittsburgh	at	Miami (FL)
7:45 PM ET ESPN	(15) Auburn	at	(1) Alabama
8:00 PM ET ABC	(2) Oregon	at	Oregon State
10:15 PM ET ESPN2	Utah State	at	(23) Boise State
10:30 PM ET FS1	Washington	at	Washington State
10:30 PM ET ESPNU	Nevada	at	UNLV

Time: 2:30 p.m. CT | TV: BTN (Kevin Kugler, Glen Mason, Lisa Byington) | Streaming: BTN2Go | Radio: Badger Sports Network | Betting line: Wisconsin -14.5 | Over/Under: 50

It's been a long time since the most played rivalry in college football has meant this much. The scenario is the same for both teams: win, and become the Big Ten's inaugural West Division champions, earn a trip to the conference championship game in Indianapolis to face Ohio State and, oh yeah, there is this pretty cool trophy called Paul Bunyan's Axe you get to keep for the next year as well.

For Minnesota, there could be no sweeter way to end a 10-year drought in this rivalry than to seal a division championship in the process. For Wisconsin, nothing would sting more than to watch the hated Gophers parade around with the Axe for the first time since 2003, knowing the defeat cost a shot at a conference championship.

The home team is the heavy favorite in this one for good reason. The Badgers are on a tear, having won six straight Big Ten games, the most recent of which were impressive victories over Nebraska and Iowa. Wisconsin has scored at least 26 points in all six of those wins.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has weathered the toughest part of its schedule thus far, going 2-1 in consecutive games against Iowa, Ohio State and Nebraska. The Gophers are confident they can win in tough environments, having emerged victorious from Ann Arbor and Lincoln already this season.

Offensively, Minnesota is similar to Wisconsin in that it does the majority of its damage on the ground and struggles to move the ball through the air. The Gophers average 228.9 rushing yards per game and 134.7 passing yards per game.

The big question mark, however, is the health of senior running back David Cobb, by far their most productive runner. Cobb is officially listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported Friday he appears unlikely to play after testing the hamstring. Cobb has amassed 1,430 yards (8th in FBS) on 5.3 yards per carry, and he has scored 12 touchdowns for Minnesota in 2014.

If Cobb can't go, the Gophers may be in trouble. Freshman tailback Berkley Edwards is also questionable because of a concussion, but he did practice Wednesday. UM may be relying on Rodrick Williams, Jr., who has carried the ball only 22 times this season. Wisconsin's stingy defense allows just 2.91 yards per rush and 97.1 rushing yards per game, so this is not the group against whom the Gophers want to test new running backs.

Minnesota will be reluctant to ask sophomore quarterback Mitch Leidner to do too much. In 10 games played this season, Leidner has attempted more than 19 passes just three times. His completion percentage has dropped to 51.1 percent in 2014, and he has tossed eight interceptions to go with 10 touchdowns. He has been sacked 17 times.

If the Gophers find themselves in 3rd-and-long situations, Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Aranda will not hesitate to bring pressure from all over the field. The Badgers are tied for 15th in FBS in averaging 3.09 sacks per game. Additionally, Wisconsin boasts the third-best defense in the nation in opponents' third-down conversion percentage (27.7 percent).

Minnesota is solid defensively, allowing 22.5 points per game. The Gophers rank 24th in FBS in surrendering 354.9 yards per game. They fare better against the pass than against the run, however, which could spell trouble against Melvin Gordon and the Badgers' running game. UM gives up 154.6 yards per game on the ground and 4.42 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Minnesota gives up just over 200 passing yards per game and has scored two defensive touchdowns in 11 games.

The Gophers' special teams units are generally strong. Minnesota ranks 24th in the nation in allowing 18.46 yards per kickoff return and has not allowed a punt or kickoff to be returned for a touchdown this season. Meanwhile, Wisconsin's return team, led by senior Kenzel Doe, has averaged 23.47 yards per kick return, good for 20th in FBS, and 12.24 yards per punt return, which ranks 14th.

Ryan Santoso has made 10 of 16 field goal attempts this season, but just three of eight from 40 yards or more. Freshman Rafael Gaglianone has become ultra-reliable for the Badgers, making 83.3 percent of his field goal attempts in 2014.

With an expected high near 39 degrees at kickoff and no precipitation in the forecast, the weather should not play much of a role. Dry conditions aside, expect a good, old-fashioned Big Ten showdown featuring two highly motivated teams, each with a great running game and a stout defense. This time, the battle is not just for the Axe, but the championship.

Who has the edge?

Offense: Wisconsin

Defense: Wisconsin

Special teams: Wisconsin

Coaching: Minnesota

Intangibles: Wisconsin

Predictions

Mike Fiammetta	Andy Johnson	Phil Mitten	Jake Harris	Andrew Rosin	Lucas Mueller	Louis Bien
31-17	36-17	29-21	35-21	21-10	27-21	45-21
Jake Kocorowski	Sam Brief	Drew Hamm	Zach Wingrove	Bart Torvik	Greg Guenther	COMP
38-24	27-21	28-21	38-17	56-2	38-6	35-19