NCAA Hockey Bracketology: Week 17 (1/24/12)

Ok, I'll admit that I've been slacking on publishing my bracketology the past few weeks. Obviously part of the reason was that the team we cover here (Wisconsin) was so far off the Pairwise radar that it wasn't even worth it to publish a bracketology every week.

With the Badgers winning five out of their past six, Wisconsin is back in the game ranked #23 in the current PWR. Now, obviously they have a ton of work to do in that department. If you're familiar with this bracketology feature, we always tell you in order to be safe, a team would like to be in the top 13-14 in the PWR when it comes to conference tournament time.

This weekends games are huge for the Badgers as North Dakota is considered a "TUC" and these games could swing some comparisons in the Badgers favor if they take care of business.

In this week's bracketology, the WCHA gets three bids to the tournament (UMD, Minnesota, Denver). Additionally, Colorado College, North Dakota, Nebraska-Omaha, and Wisconsin are within 8 spots of an at large bid.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Boston University
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. UMass-Lowell
4. Ohio State
5. Notre Dame
6. Michigan
7. Ferris State
8. Merrimack
9. Boston College
10. Northern Michigan
11. Cornell
12. Denver
13. Minnesota
14. Michigan State
15. Miami
16. --Atlantic Hockey Champion (Mercyhurst)

Bubble teams (in order): Colorado College, Western Michigan, Maine, North Dakota, Lake Superior State.

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Boston University, Minnesota-Duluth, UMass-Lowell, Ohio State
No. 2 seeds: Notre Dame, Michigan, Ferris State, Merrimack
No. 3 seeds: Boston College, Northern Michigan, Cornell, Denver
No. 4 seeds: Minnesota, Michigan State, Miami, RIT

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

This week we have only one host school that is currently projected to be in the tournament. Minnesota is hosting the West Regional at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in Regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth is placed In the West Regional in St. Paul.
No. 3 UMass-Lowell is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 4 Ohio State is placed in the Midwest Regional in Green Bay.

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible. Begin by filling each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 Merrimack is placed in No. 1 Boston University's Regional, the Northeast.
No. 7 Ferris State is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the West.
No. 6 Michigan is placed in No. 3 UMass-Lowell's Regional, the East.
No. 5 Notre Dame is placed in No. 4 Ohio State's Regional, the Midwest.

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 Boston College is placed in No. 8 Merrimack's Regional, the Northeast.
No. 10 Northern Michigan is placed in No. 7 Ferris State's Regional, the West.
No. 11 Cornell is placed in No. 6 Michigan's Regional, the East.
No. 12 Denver is placed in No. 5 Notre Dame's Regional, the Midwest.

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 Minnesota (host) is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth's's Regional, the West.
No. 14 Michigan State is placed in No. 4 Ohio State's Regional, the Midwest.
No. 15 Miami is placed in No. 3 UMass-Lowell's Regional, the East.
No. 16 Mercyhurst is placed in No. 1 Boston University's Regional, the Northeast.

Our bracket as we have it set up:

Northeast Regional (Worcester, Massachusets)
1 Boston University vs. 16 Mercyhurst
8 Merrimack vs. 9 Boston College

West Regional (St. Paul, Minnesota)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 13 Minnesota
7 Ferris State vs 10 Northern Michigan

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
3 UMass Lowell vs. 15 Miami
6 Michigan vs.11 Cornell

Midwest Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
4 Ohio State vs. 14 Michigan State
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 Denver

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference match ups. Right now we have four. (8) Merrimack and (9) Boston College in Worcester, (2) Minnesota-Duluth and (13) Minnesota in St. Paul, (7) Ferris State and (10) Northern Michgian in St. Paul, and (4) Ohio State and (14) Michigan State in Green Bay.

So we've got a lot of changes to make here.

Let's start with the big one since it involves some #1 seeds. Since Minnesota can't be moved out of St. Paul because they are a host school, Minnesota-Duluth will be on the move. Since Ohio State is also a #1 seed and are currently set up with an intra-conference match up, they are an easy flip with Minnesota-Duluth.

So now Ohio State will be the #1 seed in St. Paul, and UMD will be the #1 seed in Green Bay.

What other changes do we need to make?

We need to adjust the Merrimack/BC match up and the Ferris State/NMU Match up. Since Merrimack and Ferris State are in the same band, and BC and NMU are in the same band, this is an easy switch.

We'll flip Ferris and Merrimack so we can keep Boston College in Worcester.

Our bracket as we have it set up now:

Northeast Regional (Worcester, Massachusets)
1 Boston University vs. 16 Mercyhurst
7 Ferris State vs. 9 Boston College

West Regional (St. Paul, Minnesota)
4 Ohio State vs. 13 Minnesota
8 Merrimack vs 10 Northern Michigan

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
3 UMass Lowell vs. 15 Miami
6 Michigan vs.11 Cornell

Midwest Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 14 Michigan State
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 Denver

Is there anything that we can change right now to make the tournament better for attendance?

Not that I can see. We have BU & BC in Worcester. Minnesota is hosting in St. Paul. UMD, Michigan State, & Notre Dame are in Green Bay.

What about bracket integrity? Ideally all regional seeds would add up to 34. Right now we have Midwest (33), East (35), West (35), Northeast (33). That's pretty close. Can we make it even better?

What about if right out of the gates we make Ohio State the #1 seed in St. Paul and Minnesota-Duluth the #1 seed in Green Bay since we know they are going to end up there anyways. The only difference would be the Notre Dame/Denver match up would take place in St. Paul & the Merrimack/Northern Michigan match up takes place in Green Bay instead of vice versa.

Additionally, Michigan State would be in the East and Miami would be in Green Bay

That gives us regionals of Midwest (35), East (34), West (34), and Northeast (33). That's about as good as it gets. This also puts Northern Michigan in Green Bay where they have a strong fan base.

Our FINAL bracket as we have it set up now:

Northeast Regional (Worcester, Massachusets)
1 Boston University vs. 16 Mercyhurst
7 Ferris State vs. 9 Boston College

West Regional (St. Paul, Minnesota)
4 Ohio State vs. 13 Minnesota
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 Denver

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
3 UMass Lowell vs. 14 Michigan State
6 Michigan vs.11 Cornell

Midwest Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 15 Miami
8 Merrimack vs 10 Northern Michigan

So I guess this will have to do.

That's my bracket for this week.

Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:

Week 17: Wisconsin is #23 in the PWR

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