With another slew of upsets last weekend, the race for the Big Ten title has opened up just a bit. The Michigan schools are still heavily favored to grab at least a share of the title -- my simulation has Michigan at 78 percent to get a share, and 53 percent to win it outright; the Spartans are at 34 percent for a share and 15 percent outright.
But now, for the first time since Jan. 19, the Badgers have more than a negligible chance of getting a share of the title: 3 percent! Similarly, Iowa's chances of a share have climbed back up to 18 percent after falling to four percent following a home loss to Ohio State.
Of course, Iowa and Wisconsin play Saturday, and the loser's title hopes will likely be permanently dashed (especially if the loser is Wisconsin). If Wisconsin wins, their chances of a title will rise to 11 percent and Iowa's drop to 6 percent. If the Hawkeyes win, their chances rise to 23 percent and the Badgers are kaput. (These calculations will of course change as other teams play their games as well.)
So it's a longshot, but we might as well keep the dream alive. After all, the Badgers' season so far has been a series of unlikely events: a 16-game winning streak (there's a 0.4 percent chance of that happening, based on current Kenpom win probabilities) and then losing five of their next six (a 1.5 percent chance). Coming back to grab a share of the title from here would be only the third-most improbable event of the season.
Here are each team's chances of getting to various win totals and getting a share of the title (all based on Kenpom win probabilities):