Big Ten title odds: Has Wisconsin revived its chances?

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Naturally, the Badgers' four-game win streak has fans once again hopeful.

With another slew of upsets last weekend, the race for the Big Ten title has opened up just a bit. The Michigan schools are still heavily favored to grab at least a share of the title -- my simulation has Michigan at 78 percent to get a share, and 53 percent to win it outright; the Spartans are at 34 percent for a share and 15 percent outright.

But now, for the first time since Jan. 19, the Badgers have more than a negligible chance of getting a share of the title: 3 percent! Similarly, Iowa's chances of a share have climbed back up to 18 percent after falling to four percent following a home loss to Ohio State.

Of course, Iowa and Wisconsin play Saturday, and the loser's title hopes will likely be permanently dashed (especially if the loser is Wisconsin). If Wisconsin wins, their chances of a title will rise to 11 percent and Iowa's drop to 6 percent. If the Hawkeyes win, their chances rise to 23 percent and the Badgers are kaput. (These calculations will of course change as other teams play their games as well.)

So it's a longshot, but we might as well keep the dream alive. After all, the Badgers' season so far has been a series of unlikely events: a 16-game winning streak (there's a 0.4 percent chance of that happening, based on current Kenpom win probabilities) and then losing five of their next six (a 1.5 percent chance). Coming back to grab a share of the title from here would be only the third-most improbable event of the season.

Here are each team's chances of getting to various win totals and getting a share of the title (all based on Kenpom win probabilities):

WINS WISC MSU IOWA OSU MICH
15 0% 4% 0% 0% 23%
14 0% 20% 10% 0% 39%
13 11% 37% 33% 0% 28%
12 39% 29% 35% 23% 9%
11 36% 9% 17% 41% 1%
10 13% 1% 4% 26% 0%
9 2% 0% 0% 8% 0%
8 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
CHAMP 3% 34% 18% 0% 78%
OUTRIGHT 0% 15% 5% 0% 53%
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Bucky's 5th Quarter

You must be a member of Bucky's 5th Quarter to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bucky's 5th Quarter. You should read them.

Join Bucky's 5th Quarter

You must be a member of Bucky's 5th Quarter to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bucky's 5th Quarter. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker