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Badger Bits: In a battle of elite offenses, which unit has the edge?

Nick Toon and Jared Abbrederis have the kind of talent the Ducks lack at wideout.

Many college football analysts pegged the Rose Bowl as a top three matchup this bowl season, and it's easy to see why. Both Oregon and Wisconsin have elite offenses that do things a bit differently. The Ducks bring the full-speed-ahead spread offense that many have come to associate with the Pac-12, while the Badgers use the smashmouth power running attack that has defined the Big Ten for decades. Because I have no life, I decided to briefly break down the offenses using five (admittedly semi-subjective) criteria: traditional statistics, advanced statistics, performance against elite defenses, personnel and coaching/intangibles.

Obviously, I'm no Oregon expert, so if my analysis is poorly founded or inaccurate, those of you from Addicted To Quack should feel free to let me know in the comments and offer up analysis of your own, as always.

Traditional statistics

The Ducks top the Badgers in total offense (515.2 to 466.9), scoring offense (46.2 to 44.6) and rush yards per game (295.7 to 237.4). Wisconsin does have an advantage in passing offense, but only by 15.5 yards per game. And besides, these teams are both focused on running the ball anyway. The Badgers do have a clear edge in turnovers. Wisconsin is tied with LSU for the fewest turnovers in the nation with eight, while Oregon committed a still-respectable 18 on the season. Slight advantage: Ducks.

Star-divide


Advanced statistics

Football Outsiders uses a stat they call S&P+ to determine offensive efficiency. You can visit the link for a full explanation, but basically, S&P+ tries to determine efficiency by accounting for strength of opponent and measuring success on a play-by-play basis (excluding plays that take place in a blowout situation), among other things. The Badgers are ranked No. 1 overall in offense S&P+ with the No. 1 most efficient pass offense and No. 2 most efficient rush offense. Oregon lags behind only a bit at No. 4 overall, with the No. 5 rush offense and No. 12 pass offense. Slight advantage: Badgers.

Performance against elite defenses

The Badgers have played five games against teams currently ranked in the top 30 in total defense (Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Penn State and Michigan State again). In those games, the Badgers averaged 35 points and 373 yards per game. Oregon played three teams with defenses currently ranked in the top 30 (LSU, California and Stanford). The Ducks averaged 41 points and 428.3 yards in those games. Slight advantage: Ducks.

Player personnel

This is a tough category to judge because the two offenses are built so differently. The Ducks generally go for light and quick, while the Badgers go for big and bruising. Both teams have talented offensive lines that have been tailored perfectly to fit their respective offenses. Both have dual-threat quarterbacks who take advantage of play action and rarely make mistakes. The difference here is on the outside. The Badgers have two excellent receivers in Nick Toon and Jared Abbrederis, both of whom have over 800 receiving yards on the season. The Ducks top wideout, Lavasier Tuines, has only 40 catches for 441 yards. Slight advantage: Badgers.

Coaching and intangibles

Both teams lost their BCS bowl games last season and each has suffered a couple of heartbreaking losses this season. Oregon's Chip Kelly is regarded as one of the college football's top offensive masterminds. Wisconsin offensive coordinator Paul Chryst gets a lot of respect himself, but has struggled with playcalling in big games in the past. Slight advantage: Oregon

Obviously, these measures are somewhat subjective and don't come close to telling the whole story, but I'd give the Ducks' offense the slightest of edges, thanks in large part to Chip Kelly, who has built a borderline elite program at Oregon. Wisconsin is well on its way to doing the same, but I'm not sure they're quite there yet. Of course, the Badgers will have a chance to prove me wrong come January 2.

Football links

Pittsburgh is reportedly interested in hiring Paul Chryst to fill its head coaching vacancy, though it doesn't seem like the interest is mutual, according to a source cited in the article.

Conversely, this report from The Pittsburgh Post Gazette says Chryst feels "he is ready to be a head coach." Hmm.

Jon Budmayr is still having nerve problems in his throwing arm.

Four-star 2012 offensive lineman Jordan Diamond announced his top five schools on Twitter last night. The Badgers were one of them.

Todd McShay says Montee Ball can help his draft stock in the Rose Bowl "by showing the ability to be a workhorse back and keeping Wisconsin out of obvious passing situations." You don't say, Todd.

In the least surprising news of the morning, the Badgers are focused on the game, not the glamour of LA.

Here's a nice photo gallery from the Journal Sentinel showcasing Wisconsin's 2011 touchdowns.

Hoops links

The Badgers knocked off Savannah State last night in one of their last tune-ups before the Big Ten season begins.

Former Badger Jon Leuer agreed to a rookie contract with the Milwaukee Bucks yesterday.

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Pretty good write up

I would say though that while LT is our leading WR, our best pass catcher has been De’Anthony Thomas this season.

I credit my urine for the victory.

by mackjones23 on Dec 16, 2011 11:03 AM CST reply actions   2 recs

And his name is David Paulson, second half of the season.

For “pass catchers”, not just WR of course.

I would actually say the Badgers have a more “sizeable” advantage in the receiving category, as our stable of true WR have been dropping passes like it’s what they’re taught to do this year.

Ivon Padilla-Rodriguez's #1 fan

by Bill Musgrave on Dec 16, 2011 1:30 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

Yeah I was actually suprised that we were close in passing yards, given the chronic case of dropsies.

For Oregon, King Kelly, and St Quack!

by DamienS on Dec 16, 2011 2:20 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

That was my sentiment too...

while Toon and Abbrederis have been clearly more consistent, we have been plagued by injuries. Huff with the stress fracture, Hoffman with the concussion and Darron Thomas with his knee. The passing game has not had the consistency to gel.

It will be interesting to see what Chip Kelly devises with De’Anthony. Huff being healthy just gives a true burner.

"I love Oregon's obsolete recruiting report on an unhealthy level. Just more proof how balla Chip Kelly really is." Dr. Saturday

by BisonDucks on Dec 16, 2011 3:53 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Dayne Crist Decision Imminent?

Buckeye fan here.

What’s the collective Badger, gut feeling? Do you guys want Crist? If so, do you fear Weiss and the Jayhawks?

Best of luck, in the Rose Bowl!

by Hoody Wayes on Dec 16, 2011 11:13 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

Wanting him more all the time.

See the article above re: Jon Budmayr’s nerve problems.

I don’t fear the Jayhawks. If Bielema decides he wants Crist, I’m pretty sure he’ll come. I don’t care how good his relationship with Weiss is, if you have one year of eligibility and the choice between the back-to-back Big 10 champs or 2-10 Kansas, that’s not much of choice.

by BadgerInDC on Dec 16, 2011 11:21 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Mixed feelings about Chryst.

One the one hand, I’ve seen him make enough utterly inexplicable decisions in big games to have thought to myself “this guy has got to go”. As noted in the top half of this post, he is something of a big game liability. On the other hand, Wisconsin has not had a sterling record for offensive and defensive coordinators in the Alvarez/Bielema era. Aside from Bielema, Chryst probably sits at the top of that heap. So I have no confidence that we’ll replace him with someone better. Rather, I think there is a reasonably good chance we’ll replace him with someone worse.

by BadgerInDC on Dec 16, 2011 11:18 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

So, the loser of this game has to score at least 31 points, right?

"Lying is like 95% of what I do."
-Sterling Archer, Codename: Duchess

by Bob Genghiskhan on Dec 16, 2011 12:02 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

Pretty much

PAC-12 refs: "Where the bad officiating doesn’t stop when the whistle blows."

by Quack Patty on Dec 16, 2011 1:16 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

/Pounds the over.

"Lying is like 95% of what I do."
-Sterling Archer, Codename: Duchess

by Bob Genghiskhan on Dec 16, 2011 1:40 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

1st to 50 wins!

This will WAC football 80s style, except replace the passing yards with running!

For Oregon, King Kelly, and St Quack!

by DamienS on Dec 16, 2011 2:09 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

The definitive fan primer on the Oregon Zone Read Spread Option Offense.

Checkout the “Playbook” and “Fish Tutorials” links in the right margin. Charles is our unquestioned guru on the offense. The rest of the guys provide all sorts of great background and history.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Dec 17, 2011 12:19 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

I think it comes down to the Badgers defense.

We understand that we’ll give up some points, and we’re not afraid of that. Our defense eventually figures out how to get stops when they’re needed. So IMO it’s going to be a matter of whether the Wiscy D can respond in kind, and that can be a tall order. The only defenses that have successfully done so are pretty elite: Ohio State, Boise State, LSU, Auburn. Our other 2 losses in the last 3 years came to teams that just barely outlasted the Ducks in the 4th, which is very, very tough. USC almost gave up every last bit of what most thought was an insurmountable lead but for the grace of a season-long quad injury to the only Duck kicker who can kick anything longer than 35 yards.

Ducks GOOOOD. Fuskies BAAAAAD.

by BigGreenWreckingMachine on Dec 17, 2011 12:26 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

No mention of special teams?

If Wisky gives Oregon a short field several times or worse turns it over the game is done for Bucky

by Big10freak on Dec 17, 2011 10:00 AM CST via mobile reply actions   2 recs

And vice versa. We've had the fumbles and dropsies epidemics too.

#WhyCantOurReceiversCatchWhyGod!

Oregon loves you, Chip Kelly!

by gamedaytribe on Dec 17, 2011 11:17 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

To be fair to the special teams

They’ve done some good things lately. Forced fumble on a Michigan State kickoff gave the Badgers the 21-7 lead in Indy. Hoping they play really well in Pasadena.

Bucky's 5th Quarter - All Badgers, all the time.

by Adam Tupitza on Dec 17, 2011 1:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Agreed on the hope

Not counting on it though

by Big10freak on Dec 17, 2011 2:20 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Todd McShay: reporting the obvious

Todd McShay also goes on to predict that Nick Toon will hurt his draft stock if he drops multiple balls and that Russell Wilson will improve his stock if he has a “big game”.

by texwestern on Dec 19, 2011 8:09 AM CST reply actions  

Awesome analysis

"I love Oregon's obsolete recruiting report on an unhealthy level. Just more proof how balla Chip Kelly really is." Dr. Saturday

by BisonDucks on Dec 19, 2011 12:15 PM CST up reply actions  

Wow...breathtaking.

Any word from McShay on how scoring more points than the opposition will affect who wins the game?

by Quackhead503 on Dec 20, 2011 12:46 AM CST up reply actions  

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