Fifth Quarter Consensus: Badgers exorcise demons in East Lansing

by Jake Harris on Oct 21, 2011 3:37 PM CDT in Wisconsin Badgers Football

Bret Bielema and the Badgers face a stiff road test at Michigan State Saturday night.

The Predictions

Sam Zastrow (+91): Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 13

Adam Hoge (+93): Wisconsin 34, Michigan State 20

Jake Harris (+93): Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 20

Louis Bien (+93): Wisconsin 34, Michigan State 27

John Veldhuis (+100): Wisconsin 28, Michigan State 17

Chuck Schwartz (+101): Wisconsin 34, Michigan State 17

Phil Mitten (+122): Wisconsin 30, Michigan State 24

Adam Tupitza (+130): Wisconsin 28, Michigan State 24

The Reasoning

With Halloween on the horizon and temperatures in Madison expected to dip into the 30s tonight, a true road game for the Badgers is long overdue. While Wisconsin has been consistently dominant at Camp Randall Stadium during Bret Bielema's tenure as head coach, the story has not been the same on the road. The team's record away from Madison was just 4-8 over the course of the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

Things began to change during last season's Big Ten championship run, as the Badgers picked up gutty wins at Iowa and at Michigan on their way to an 11-1 regular-season record. The success has been partially the result of a new philosophy from Bielema, who now encourages his players to embrace the experience of playing in a hostile environment, rather than pretending the conditions are the same.

Still, Wisconsin has not won at Michigan State since 2002, and each of the team's last three losses there were uniquely disappointing for various reasons. It doesn't help that Michigan State looks like a solid team this season and that Saturday's game will be played at night.

The most anticipated matchup in this one is the Badgers' first-ranked scoring offense against the Spartans' third-ranked scoring defense. Something has to give when an offense averaging 50.2 points per game meets a defense allowing just 10.8 points per game.

Wisconsin secured a slight advantage earlier this week when the Big Ten suspended Spartans linebacker William Gholston for the game in response to his display of unsportsmanlike conduct in last week's win over Michigan. Gholston's absence will hurt Michigan State's pass rush as the Spartans attempt to overcome the Badgers' stout offensive line and get to quarterback Russell Wilson. Still, MSU gives up just 67 rushing yards per game, which means Wilson will need to be sharp if Montee Ball and James White can't get it going on the ground.

If the battle between Wisconsin's offense and Michigan State's defense ends in a draw, expect the reverse matchup to give the Badgers the overall edge. Quarterback Kirk Cousins leads a Michigan State offense that has looked pedestrian thus far. His 7.61 yards per attempt are his lowest in a season since 2008, and his quarterback rating of 140.5 is his lowest ever for a season. He has four interceptions to go with his eight touchdowns, despite facing just one ranked team over the first six games of the season.

A rebuilt offensive line has contributed to the Spartans ranking 67th in the country in rushing yards per game. Wisconsin's defense has quietly allowed just 9.7 points per game, good for third in the nation. David Gilbert remains out at defensive end and Patrick Butrym will be limited due to an ankle injury, but the Badgers' linebackers have been solid and the secondary is strong with Antonio Fenelus playing as well as any corner in the league.

Wisconsin gave up a punt return for a touchdown last time these teams met, and punter Brad Nortman is determined to avoid any line drive kicks this time around. The Badgers have their own dynamic return man in Jared Abbrederis, who ran a punt back for a score last week against Indiana. There remain concerns for UW on special teams, however. Kicker Philip Welch has attempted just one field goal all year, which could be an issue if this game is close. Alec Lerner has struggled on kickoffs, and White's kick returns leave much to be desired.

Who has the edge?

Offense: Wisconsin

Defense: Michigan State

Special Teams: Michigan State

Coaching: Wisconsin

Intangibles: Push

Fun Facts

Wisconsin's last loss to a Big Ten team was at Michigan State on October 2, 2010.

Michigan State either wins - or loses big. The Spartans have won 16 of their last 19 games, but their three losses were by a combined 91 points.

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Comments

God I hope so

Not only to keep the championship dream alive, but especially since Dantonio refused to discipline Gholston and the B1G had to step in and do it. Total SEC move on Dantonio’s part.

by wibrownguy on Oct 21, 2011 3:49 PM CDT reply actions

My name is Andrew

And I approve of this comment.

by fennec3x5 on Oct 21, 2011 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Enough with that already

The B1G had informally notified MSU on Sunday it was investigating, and formally notified on Monday, the first day it could do so.

As soon as it tells MSU that its doing so, the school is right to step back & await the conference’s decision. MSU is of course free to add on other discipline (which it has internally – word on campus is 5 am steps among other things), but once the conference has stepped in, pre-emptively punishing him is just an invitation for double jeapordy.

A real SEC move would be to appeal the suspension (so WG can play today), or burning the redshirt of a freshman, playing him, then putting him on a medical rs after the game so that the frosh doesn’t lose his entire season.

I generally like Wisconsin & its fans bc, among other things, they usually don’t go all DB & overboard on things like U-M, tOSU, & ND people – and believe me, living in Chicago for last 7 years I know a ton of them. But maybe there is a new breed of Badger I’m only now becoming familiar with.

by MSUDersh on Oct 22, 2011 11:11 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Whoa whoa whoa

Educating me in detail on MSU’s thinking in the discipline process is one thing, and I’m fine with that. Jumping to a broad conclusion that Badger fans are turning evil and insulting me with a thinly veiled shot – on a Wisconsin blog thread, to boot – in quite another. I mean, you know this is a Wisconsin thread; we’re supposed to talk some trash on our opponent over here!

Try not to take it so seriously when you’re visiting the Wisconsin board. There’s a reason I didn’t post this on OTE.

"If only a face could talk" -- John Madden

by wibrownguy on Oct 22, 2011 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions

lol sorry bout the broad brush painting

But generally, both on this blog & in real life, Wisky people I’ve dealt with are more along the lines of, Hey its beneficial to us that he got suspended so that’s great but there still is a game to play, not, It’s bush of MSU & their coach to do nothing and run & hide and force the conference to step in.

Frankly, its kind of tough to not like Wisconsin, and I enjoy that there is a building rivalry between our schools in football, hoops & probably soon in hockey, too. And one of my favorite parts is again, I generally like Wisconsin alums more than most other B1G alums – they are passionate about their teams without crossing that line of being a tool.

by MSUDersh on Oct 22, 2011 11:28 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Yeah, that's us :)

Part of my efforts were to stir up a little conversation because there wasn’t much happening (at least over here). Finding the right mixture of stirring up some smack without crossing the line into toolsville can be tricky, so I hope you’ll believe me when I say that in reality I didn’t mean any disrespect (at least not anything greater than a little smack talk). B1G schools are magnitudes more ethical than SEC ones, and I would never expect any B1G school to do any of the things you listed as examples.

Looking forward to what should be a hell of a game tonight. For now my stomach demands I go get some tacos.

Go Badgers! Beat those (insert appropriately nerve-jabbing but not overtly insulting comment here) Spartans! :p

"If only a face could talk" -- John Madden

by wibrownguy on Oct 22, 2011 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions

Really?

That dog just won't hunt.

by Bush League All Star on Oct 22, 2011 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Wow! Wisconsin's #4! All of America and the Little Giants Will Be Watching!

The Badgers won’t be in Madison…tonight. And the Spartans will be ready.

Remember 10/02/10 in East Lansing, Badger fans? YOU were the losers.

We know you can party. But, will you…tonight?

Does the “Wisconsin Death Trip” begin…tonight?

The Little Giants are waiting.

by FanthOm on Oct 22, 2011 11:48 AM CDT reply actions

Really? I had forgotten they lost last year.

Its not like it’s been mentioned over and over every day since last Saturday.

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by John Veldhuis on Oct 22, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Sparty is alwaysf tough or the Badgers at East Lansing, so I predict a hard fought 45 to 20 Wisconsin win

He’s always open. He catches a lot of balls. He’s un-guardable, no matter how old he is

by WarWolf on Oct 22, 2011 5:49 PM CDT reply actions

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Badgers Football Schedule

UNLV	Thu 09/01	W 51 - 17
Oregon St. Building The Dam	Sat 09/10	W 35 - 0
@ Northern Illinois Red And Black Attack	Sat 09/17	W 49 - 7
South Dakota Coyotes	Sat 09/24	W 59 - 10
Nebraska Corn Nation	Sat 10/01	W 48 - 17
Indiana The Crimson Quarry	Sat 10/15	W 59 - 7
@ Michigan St. The Only Colors	Sat 10/22	L 31 - 37
@ Ohio St. Along The Olentangy	Sat 10/29	L 29 - 33
Purdue Hammer and Rails	Sat 11/05	W 62 - 17
@ Minnesota The Daily Gopher	Sat 11/12	W 42 - 13
@ Illinois Hail to the Orange	Sat 11/19	W 28 - 17
Penn St. Black Shoe Diaries	Sat 11/26	W 45 - 7
@ Michigan St. The Only Colors	Sat 12/03	W 42 - 39
@ Oregon Addicted To Quack	Mon 01/02	L 38 - 45

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