Why the Badgers will win comfortably at Michigan State
by Adam Hoge on Oct 19, 2011 5:16 PM CDT
in Wisconsin Badgers Football
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Hint: It has something to do with Russell Wilson
Let's get this out of the way immediately: I think Wisconsin is going to win by at least 10 points Saturday.
That doesn't mean I don't see any way in which Michigan State steals the game, but would I be surprised to see that happen? Yes. In fact, I'd be shocked.
What does Bret Bielema have to do to avoid a second-straight upset in East Lansing? He already did it. He brought Russell Wilson to Wisconsin and Wilson makes all the difference between last year and this year.
For the Spartans to win, two things are going to have to happen:
1) Michigan State is going to have to play defense on offense. It will need to sustain long drives that result in touchdowns. In this game, keeping the ball away from the Badgers' offense is just as important for the Spartans as scoring. Field goals aren't good enough and neither are quick strikes. Nebraska learned that the hard way. After both of their first quarter touchdowns, the Badgers got the ball back and scored before the Blackshirts even blinked.
And then, even if Michigan State manages to accomplish these two goals, they are going to have to do a lot more.
Consider this: Last year the Spartans accomplished the first goal mentioned above and did enough in regards to the second goal to end up with a 34-24 victory in East Lansing. They won the time of possession 36:24-23:36. That stat was even more important in the second half when both teams scored 14 points, but Michigan State held the ball for 21 of the 30 minutes.
Think about that. The Badgers scored just as much as the Spartans in the second half, but Michigan State had possession of the ball twice as long. That was mainly a result of the Spartans going 9-for-18 on 3rd down and 2-for-3 on fourth down. Who knows how many points Wisconsin would have scored had they been able to get the ball back.
In addition, Michigan State did enough on the line of scrimmage to make things uncomfortable for quarterback Scott Tolzien. He was hurried three times, had five passes broken up and fumbled the ball while being sacked once. Tolzien finished the game just 11-for-25 for 127 yards and a touchdown, by far his worst performance of the season. Yet the Badgers still managed three touchdowns, so what happens when you add Russell Wilson's strength, quickness and strong arm into the mix this year?
And, even with Michigan State largely accomplishing both of the goals I referenced above last year -- not to mention giving up a special teams touchdown as well -- the Badgers still were one stop away from getting the ball back with a chance to win the game. Unfortunately they couldn't get that stop and Michigan State iced the game with a touchdown on 4th-and-1 on the goal line in the final minutes.
Now, usually I don't put this much stock into a game played over a year ago, but considering how similar these teams are as last season, I think looking back at last year's game helps a lot.
The biggest difference? Russell Wilson.
Michigan State fans will argue another difference is that their defense is better than last year. It is. But so is Wisconsin's. The Spartans rank No. 4 nationally in scoring defense? But guess what? The Badgers rank No. 3.
And before you throw Wisconsin's schedule at me as the reason why the Badgers rank higher in scoring defense, you should know that UW has actually faced better offenses. The average scoring offense ranking of UW's five FBS opponents is 68.4. The average for Michigan State's five FBS opponents is 73.4.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is ranked No. 65 nationally in scoring offense (28 points per game). The Badgers are No. 1 nationally with 50.17 points per game.
That's where Russell Wilson comes in. To negate him in this game, Michigan State is going to have to do everything it did last year and then a lot more.
With their three-headed rushing attack, Michigan State could very well control the ball and win the time of possession. They'll also have to be very efficient on third down as they were last year. But scoring touchdowns could be the problem. Wisconsin has a bend-but-don't-break-defense. When it comes to rushing, the Badger defense only ranks No. 42 giving up 123.17 yards per game. But they lock it down in the end zone and have only given up four rushing touchdowns this season.
Last year Michigan State scored touchdowns on 3-of-6 red zone possessions. They'll probably have to do even better Saturday, and considering UW has only given up seven touchdowns all season, that's going to be tough.
So, clearly, keeping the ball away from Wilson and scoring touchdowns isn't merely enough for the Spartans. They have to find a way to contain all the weapons Wisconsin has and it won't be easy.
To do this, the Spartans have to win the line of scrimmage on defense and then some. They have to put Wilson in uncomfortable situations. They have to pressure him, but they also have to contain him.
Nebraska managed to sack Wilson twice, but that wasn't enough. The Cornhuskers had three other quarterback hurries, but Wilson tucked the ball and ran for first downs in all three of those situations. The point is, you can't just pressure him, you have to put him on the ground. That's why Michigan State will have to do more than just win the line of scrimmage. If you look at the times Tolzien was pressured against MSU last year, you realize Wilson would have had a good chance to get out of all those situations except maybe the one where Tolzien fumbled the football. Thus, Sparty has to do more.
And Michigan State knows it has to play even better than it did last year. But I'm not sure that's going to be enough.
Now, could they get help from Wisconsin? Sure. Last year the Badgers dropped passes, gave up a special teams touchdown and looked inept defensively on third down. And that was a day game. This is a road night game under the lights on national television. The pressure is on.
But do I envision all those things happening again? No. Last year's loss to Michigan State is still fresh in the minds of the Badgers and they are going to be extremely focused.
Of course, once again, there's Russell Wilson. He didn't play in that game a year ago and he's never played a road game in the Big Ten. Could that be a problem? Maybe. But honestly, based on what you have seen from this kid, do you think that's going to phase him? I doubt it.
Add all this up and a Badger loss just doesn't make sense. They're simply too good on offense.
Wisconsin wins comfortably, 34-20.
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That. ESPN. Feature. Was. AWESOME.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Lengthy counterpoint
not to throw a huge wrench into your argument of ‘They got a ton of breaks last year and still only won by 10 points’ or anything, but…
And, even with Michigan State largely accomplishing both of the goals I referenced above last year — not to mention the Badgers throwing two interceptions and giving up a special teams touchdown as well — the Badgers still were one stop away from getting the ball back with a chance to win the game.
1. You guys actually made us throw two interceptions, had no interceptions or turnovers of your own on offense, and recovered a Spartan fumble. MSU was -3 in turnover margin, but still ran 18 more plays than Wisconsin did, still out gained the Badgers on a per play basis by almost a yard (6 YPP vs. 5.2 YPP), and still won by ‘only’ ten points.
2. This point:
In this game, keeping the ball away from the Badgers’ offense is just as important for the Spartans as scoring. Field goals aren’t good enough and neither are quick strikes.
I think is almost completely wrong (except in one very specific situation: if you have the ball very late in the game or a half, are less than nine points ahead, and are trying to ‘steal a possession’ from your opponent. But even then, you have to make sure you leave either no, or very, very, little, time on the clock.)
We didn’t win last year because we played ‘keep away’, we won by being superior in nearly all facets of the game. We don’t need long drives to win this year, we just need scoring drives (or special teams touchdowns, or defensive touchdowns, etc.). I will gladly allow Wisconsin to have the ball for as long, and as many times, as it wants provided we can score, and the Badgers don’t.
In this way, TOP is an almost completely casual effect that you often win by simply being better than your opponent (especially at run offense and defense), or even just by running the ball more than your opponent. TOP is very unhelpful at explaining why a team won a game by itself. As a game plan, saying “We’re going to win TOP and keep the ball out of the hands of their offense.” is crazy. What MSU (or any team) needs to do to win is:
A. score as easily as possible and,
B. get the other team’s offense off the field as easily as possible.
Anything that deviates from those two goals is a bad idea, which would include playing ‘defense on offense’. If you do those two things, you’ll generally win TOP and if you don’t well, you’re still going to win the game anyways. I mean, unless it’s the very last possession of the game, and we’re ahead, if B.J. Cunningham is running for the end zone on a long play from scrimmage, he shouldn’t fall down to make sure Wisconsin doesn’t get the ball back, right? And if Baker is averaging 7 yards a carry, no coach is gonna tell him, “Hey, you’re really picking up chunks of yards! But ease off a bit, we don’t want the Badgers to get the ball back so fast if we score too quick!” We don’t need to play ‘defense on offense’, we just need to play offense on offense. Ideas of ‘keep away’ are totally red herrings.
If last year’s result and performances are as important as you posit, we’re going to kill you guys if that turnover margin even comes close to zero, much less goes positive in the direction of the Spartans this year. Fortunately for Wisconsin, last year’s performance and result has like, zero bearing on this year’s performance and result. So maybe you really will beat us by 2 TDs. Or maybe you’ll be ‘surprised’, as you put it.
And hey, at least we agree about controlling the line of scrimmage being important.
-Heck
by HeckDorland on Oct 19, 2011 7:27 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I hope Gholston is suspended.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Done
Step Two: Develop an organizational plan
by Shanghai Badger on Oct 20, 2011 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorry, read the stat sheet wrong. It's corrected.
As for your opinion on the keep away thing… That’s fine. Give Wisconsin the ball more and see what happens. You are obviously underestimating how good Wisconsin’s offense is. I respect the Michigan State defense a lot, but the Badgers will score points in this game. The more the Spartans have the ball, the fewer opportunities Wisconsin will have to score. It’s simple.
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Give em heck, Heck!
UW is reaching UM levels of arrogance. Why don’t you guys just ink this one in as a W? We’ll be watching what happens on the field under the lights.
by Chitown Spartan on Oct 20, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with the article.
Our offense and defense is better than last years version. For whatever reason our defense is criminally underrated and will suprise MSU IMO. We’ve got to All Big Ten caliber linebackers a shut down Corner and tons of depth on the D-Line. We should give their offense fits.
On the offensive side I don’t see how they hold us under 4 tds and I think that is more than enough to win with our D. Gholston is all but garaunteed to be suspended and that will be a big blow for them. I don’t think we blow them out and wouldn’t be shocked if we lost but I have a hard time envisioning MSU being able to keep pace with our offense.
by combatsports4life on Oct 19, 2011 9:18 PM CDT reply actions
MSU essentially assaulted our receivers.
And Nick Toon had easily the worst game of his career. I vividly remember him dropping at least 3 passes in that game last year, including a couple on 3rd down.
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 19, 2011 9:44 PM CDT reply actions
Good write up
I always like getting the other side’s fan take going into the game.
Like Heck mentioned, you had the turnover stat backwards, which helps explain the TOP stat; however, the punt return TD does mean one MSU score wasn’t even on a drive.
IMO, last season’s game turned on the 4th & Goal TD w 3 minutes to go. People talk about how gutsy Little Giants & Mousetrap (fake punt vs. NW) were, but I think the call vs you guys was just as ballsy – it was a 3 pt game with about 2:30 to go, and if the Spartans failed to convert, you guys had a chance to either win or tie late.
For MSU to win this weekend, I think the D will have to “bend but not break,” as in, no quick scoring plays, hold Wiscy to 3 (or zero) on as many drives as possible, and win the turnover battle; conversely, the offense has to avoid big mistakes, and on drives that result in no points, must be able to pin the Badgers deep as often as possible.
You know what’s going to be rough? Waiting around all day on Saturday for this late game to start.
I don't get the "keeping the ball away" from RW argument.
Except for end-of-half clock management, each team gets the ball the same number of times. RW will have the same number of opportunities to get his mitts on the ball as MSU. TOP is also a crude metric, unless you’re really arguing that teams should prefer a 10 play drive that nets 30 yards, a punt, and 6 minutes to a couple of plays that break open for 50 yards and a score?
I’m not saying it’s a bad strategy to bring a steady stream of high-quality running plays (because it’s good to have your offensive line actively hitting, rather than pass-blocking) but placing elapsed time per drive above points per drive is a fools errand.
OK, let's simplify this for you:
I assume you will agree that Wisconsin’s offense is better than Michigan State’s (stats, talent, the naked eye all prove this).
OK, so given that fact, do you feel better about MSU’s chances if both teams have 8 offensive possessions in the game or if both teams have 12 possessions?
The way I look at it, the more chances Russell Wilson has to score, the more points Wisconsin is going to have at the end of the game. That’s not necessarily true for Michigan State given that their offense is worse and given that I proved above Wisconsin’s scoring defense is actually better than MSU’s.
Make sense now?
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One important distinction
IMO is the “yards between the 20’s”/empty possessions (this goes for both teams). I think a lot of times stats can get distorted, and not tell the whole picture. A couple of turnovers or big special teams plays can really distort stats – it doesn’t matter if a team puts up 400 + yards, and owns TOP by a 10 + minute margin, if the team isn’t capitalizing.
So I totally agree with Nigel that points per drive/possession matters far more than TOP or even total yards. A team can pound the rock all day, but if it is failing to capitalize in the RZ, those stats mean nothing.
OK, Red Zone Efficiency:
Wisconsin is No. 4 in the country with 32 scores in 33 red zone appearances. They have 29 touchdowns and 3 FGs.
Michigan State is No. 91 with 21 scores in 28 red zone appearances. They have 17 touchdowns and 4 FGs.
That’s 211 red zone points for Wisconsin vs. 131 for Michigan State.
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Exactly!
You put it much better than I did. And this helps explain why UW is 6-0, & MSU is 5-1; MSU’s most glaring RZ fails are in it’s loss to ND.
On a related note, do you have any type of stats along the lines of, teams that win RZ battle win the game x% of the time?
I don't, but I would assume it's a pretty high number.
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In other words
Try to avoid the Law of Large Numbers and hope for a statistical fluke. Anticipating defeat and crossing your fingers is not a strategy.
Reality check
I think Wisconsin fans are paying too much attention to their own press clippings. They forget that those gaudy offensive stats have come against three teams that currently have one win apiece, two 4-3 teams from the MAC and I-AA and a Nebraska team that struggled to beat Ohio State at home. That big win over Nebraska was also powered by three interceptions on practically successive possessions, taking the Cornhuskers out of the game early.
On top of that, Wisconsin has struggled at Spartan Stadium in recent years and Wilson’s performance fell off significantly in road games when he was at NC.
State’s D was suffocating against OSU and U-M, so it’s going to keep them in the game. Their offensive line has come a long way since the ND debacle and should enable them to move the ball. The only thing that can really kill the Spartans is turnovers – control those and I think they win. At any event, I think this one is going right down to the wire.
Yeah their defense was suffocating against OSU and UM
But that’s against a freshman quarterback/horrible veteran, and a one-dimensional offense.
The Badger offense is light-years ahead of either of those teams, and while MSU will probably be able to contain them better than anyone else this year, that might mean keeping them to about 28-35 points instead of 40-50.
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by John Veldhuis on Oct 20, 2011 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think so
The QB may have been a rookie, but the offensive line wasn’t – and you can’t ignore 16 sacks in two games. Bucky’s front four is big, but we’ll see how agile they are – and State’s linebackers and secondary are deadly.
Again, you’re making too much of the interception-bloated Nebraska game total as a measure of your offense, because the rest of your opponents have been really pathetic.
I tried to warn Nebraska fans of this and they didn't listen to me.
You’re right in that Wisconsin’s offense really hasn’t been tested yet. But that’s also allowed them to barely dive into their playbook.
I said before the Nebraska game that the Badgers hadn’t even gotten to Page 2 of the playbook. They showed a little more in that game and then used that HB throw to Wilson last week against Indiana. But trust me, those plays are just setting up Page 3. Michigan State doesn’t have a lot to look at on tape and it’s Week 8.
But if you want to keep underestimating the No. 1 offense in the country, go ahead.
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That still doesn't change the fact that, despite inferior competition, the Badger offense is on another level
Have you watched much film of their games?
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by John Veldhuis on Oct 20, 2011 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't forget about that #44 run defense against 1-5 teams...
It’s meaningless to say your offense has been on another level when your opposition has been subterranean – and film is misleading against opposition that bad. Despite all the hype about Wilson, you guys are a running team with a good QB who gets a lot of one-on-one defenses against inferior opposition that pack the box. And State won’t have to stack eight on the line to stop the run, regardless of the playbook.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s run defense has been giving up over 200 yards a game against some of the worst teams in the country, meaning Wilson and Co. are going to spend a lot of time cooling their heels on the sidelines against Baker and Bell.
correction
Sorry, misread the stat – it’s 212 total carries, 123 yard yard average. Still, giving up over 200 yards on the ground to Indiana can’t do much to inspire confidence, nor can a 3.5 yard per carry average against the bottom quartile of teams in the country.
by zeebaneighba on Oct 20, 2011 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Well isn't it possible that MSU's defense is also over-rated then?
MSU’s opponents averaged about 73rd in the FBS in total scoring, while the Badgers’ ranked 68th, not a lot of difference either way – both teams havent really been tested yet.
But don’t be too quick to assume MSU’s defense can automatically stop a potent Wisconsin offense.
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by John Veldhuis on Oct 20, 2011 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions
I've seen this before
I just don’t think W’s offense is as good as you think. I’ve seen too many similar situations where a supposedly high-powered offense crumbles as soon as it hits a capable defense. We shall see.
by zeebaneighba on Oct 20, 2011 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Definitely
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by John Veldhuis on Oct 20, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
It can go both ways.
I remember a top-tier Penn State defense hitting an extremely shaky Illinois offense in 2009 and surrendering almost 400 yards of total offense.
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 20, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe both team's opponents are low in total scoring averages
BC those small sample sizes of 5 or 6 games each include games vs. these stout defenses????
The Indiana rushing total is misleading.
Over half of those yards came on one play when one of the linebackers called out the wrong coverage and the IU RB ran for a long touchdown. That’s something that is easy to correct. Indiana did not have a great day running the football at all.
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Just to be clear
I think UW is the superior team. And together, these two teams have been head and shoulders above the rest of the league the past two seasons IMO.
But MSU has definitely had Wisconsin’s # in East Lansing. I have a sinking feeling that one day we will look back and curse the schedule makers for pitting the best Badger offense of my lifetime against the Spartans — the only B1G team capable of slowing the Big Red machine — on the road two years in a row.
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Those of us who are MSU fans
Are worried that we’ll have the same moment down the road considering back to back games at Iowa – our only in season loss last year, like your team’s only in season loss last year at Spartan Stadium.
That's what we get with the schedule getting mixed up
Poor Indiana had to come to Madison two years in a row.
It’s Nebraska’s fault.
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by John Veldhuis on Oct 20, 2011 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Schedule SNAFU
this years schedule problems for Bucky may also be that they haven’t been on the road yet this year. I know RW is a 5th year senior and a worthy Heisman candidate thus far but waiting until the 2nd half to play on the road could be a pitfall for UW
That said, we shouldn’t start partying on the banks of the Red Cedar either Wisconsin has already played a high pressure, prime time game with Game Day on campus, and when they did it they weren’t coming of an emotional rivalry game.
Just a few more things to think about, I’ve got no idea how that balances out, that’s why we play games.
by SGTSparty on Oct 21, 2011 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Keeping the ball away doesn't matter
Scoring points doesn’t matter, point differential matters. One is a means, the other is a goal. Regardless of whether MSU were to score on a one play drive or a 15 play drive, the end result is still a 7-point swing. Wisconsin would still have to come back and score to zero out that swing. The logic that sustained drives are somehow more important is flat-out wrong in your context. In the context of tiring out a defense and making subsequent drives easier, the argument holds some water, but that really isn’t a key here.
If you score points and then play some good defense, you’re probably going to win the game. That said, I think Bucky is going to pull this one out. UW by 4 at the half, 13 at the final whistle.
I apologize, I didn't realize the NCAA got rid of game clock.
Simple question: if you’re Michigan State do you want Wisconsin to have more chances to score or less chances to score?
The stuff you are saying about point differential is already assumed. Everyone knows that. The point here is, if it’s just Wisconsin’s offense vs. Michigan State’s offense, Wisconsin is going to score more points. The more possessions Wisconsin has, the less chance Michigan State has to keep up with defensive touchdowns or special teams touchdowns. Thus, the longer the Spartans have the ball, the closer they will be able to keep the game.
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I agree with most of that but
My point of contention is with the second half of “Field goals aren’t good enough and neither are quick strikes.” Quick strikes are perfectly fine. I guarantee you, if Sparty throws an 80 yard touchdown pass they won’t be disappointed with it. The important part for them is to make their drives result in points, not just eat up chunks of clock.
I completely agree that MSU would prefer to have a 10-minute touchdown drive, but I disagree that their gameplan needs to be predicated on that. If they start trying to “play defense on offense”, then they are setting themselves up for failure. For them to have any sort of chance whatsoever, they are going to need to utilize both between-the-tackles smashmouth football with Edwin Baker and the deep routes to B. J. Cunningham.
Last time the Badgers won comfortably on the road against a ranked opponent?
2004, when #16 Wisconsin defeated #15 Ohio State by a score of 24-13 at the Shoe.
Not comfortable enough for you? Then we can go back to 1999, when the unranked Badgers beat the 12th-ranked Buckeyes 42-17, again at the Shoe. That Wisconsin team went on to win the Rose Bowl.
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Ranked opponent
I’m not sure the stats vs ranked opponents mean anything, it may have been the better part of a decade since you guys be a ranked team on the road but (and someone correct me if I’m wrong here because I’m not a stat guy) but I’m pretty sure MSU is winless against top ten ranked opponents under Dantonio, I’m starting to side with Narduzzi on this one, that stats are fun and they keep us going between game days but I think once we get to kick off its not going to matter.
I'm calling my shot: Bucky wins by at least 24.
Yes, UW is that damn good.
That chick was, like, the Pele of anal.
by Bob Genghiskhan on Oct 21, 2011 10:07 AM CDT reply actions
Adam, this post wins the "Jinx of the Year" Award
lol
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Badgers Football Schedule
| UNLV | Thu 09/01 | W 51 - 17 |
Oregon St.
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Sat 09/10 | W 35 - 0 |
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@
Northern Illinois
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Sat 09/17 | W 49 - 7 |
| South Dakota Coyotes | Sat 09/24 | W 59 - 10 |
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Nebraska
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Sat 10/01 | W 48 - 17 |
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Indiana
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Sat 10/15 | W 59 - 7 |
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Michigan St.
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Sat 10/22 | L 31 - 37 |
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@
Ohio St.
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Sat 10/29 | L 29 - 33 |
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Purdue
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Sat 11/05 | W 62 - 17 |
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@
Minnesota
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Sat 11/12 | W 42 - 13 |
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@
Illinois
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Sat 11/19 | W 28 - 17 |
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Penn St.
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Sat 11/26 | W 45 - 7 |
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@
Michigan St.
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Sat 12/03 | W 42 - 39 |
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Oregon
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Mon 01/02 | L 38 - 45 |
