I don't know if any of you have been following it, but TCU opened at -1.5, which eventually went up to -2.5 or -3.
I normally take Vegas seriously- when it comes to cold, hard cash, their interests are quite clear, which generally breeds clarity. That being said, I seriously want to know what Vegas is thinking here and what they see that I don't.
Yes, TCU has the best rush defense in the country. But rush defense always comes with an asterisk. Why? Because when you're up big, the other team passes more. They pass more, they rack up fewer yards. And, of course, they did this while playing against whom? So, I don't feel too worried about their defensive front. Moreover, they play a 4-2-5. That's right, a 4-2-5. So, tell me- what's going to happen when any member of Wisconsin's interior line pulls through a hole and hits somebody at the next level? We have an offensive line that manhandled both Ohio State and Iowa- let's just say I'm not too concerned, at all, about our ability to control the line of scrimmage against the Horned Frogs.
Then we look at their offense against our defense. They don't run a spread. No athletes jump off the page. Our defense- not great; more of a bend-but-don't-break defense. But they make plays.
And, finally, Vegas seems to have forgotten an important point- Pasadena turns into Madison when we play there. The crowd will be about 70-30 UW; almost a home game.
Now, if you have to bet the house, where are you putting your money?